Original | Odaily Planet Daily
Author | jk
Against the backdrop of the current recovery in the cryptocurrency market, the overall market trend shows strong signs of recovery. The sharp increase in the issuance of stablecoins has significantly improved market liquidity, and the price of Bitcoin has surpassed $65,000, which has made many institutions optimistic about the future trend. Currently, the number of institutions that are bullish on the market far exceeds the number of institutions that are bearish, reflecting market participants’ optimistic attitude towards cryptocurrency assets. This article summarizes the views of institutions on the market recovery since July 25th (the past two months).
Bullish: Mainstream views from institutions, mainly based on macro signals
Arthur Hayes: Global easing policies will drive the rise of the cryptocurrency market
Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, analyzed the trend of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and its impact on the economy. He believes that when faced with high volatility, the Federal Reserve usually continues to cut interest rates until the rate is close to 0%. Interest rate cuts will promote bank credit growth, and governments will continue to borrow to gain public support. The European Central Bank will also lower interest rates to cope with economic downturns, and governments will encourage banks to provide more loans to local enterprises to create jobs and rebuild infrastructure.
With the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, the US dollar may weaken, allowing China to increase credit while stabilizing the exchange rate of the renminbi. The People’s Bank of China has already begun to cut interest rates, indicating a relaxation of monetary policy. Other major economies are also lowering interest rates, easing the pressure for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates. Global economies are responding to volatility by lowering currency prices and increasing money supply. Hayes suggests that investors holding cryptocurrencies remain calm and expect an increase in the value of their fiat currencies.
10x Research: Firmly bullish, expects Bitcoin to reach $70,000 in the next two weeks and hit a new high by the end of October
10X Research stated in its latest report that the sharp increase in the issuance of stablecoins is expected to increase liquidity by nearly $10 billion in the coming weeks, a growth that far exceeds the liquidity of Bitcoin ETFs. Recently, the inflow of Circle’s stablecoin USDC reached 40%, indicating an increase in allocations by large market participants, possibly related to the recovery of DeFi activities. So far this year, the total inflow of stablecoins has reached $35 billion, bringing the total value of circulating stablecoins to $160 billion.
The report also mentioned that after the FOMC meeting in July, US bond yields fell sharply, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping below 4.0%, which triggered a recovery in DeFi activities. The monthly fee of Aave’s lending platform soared to $43 million in August, although activity and fees slowed down in September, they may rebound after the interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
With Bitcoin breaking through $65,000, 10X Research expects it to quickly rise to $70,000 and may hit a new all-time high in the short term. Founder Markus Thielen stated that the surge in stablecoin issuance has injected liquidity into the market, and there is a high possibility of a strong rise in the market in the fourth quarter, suggesting that the cryptocurrency field may soon see more FOMO.
CryptoQuant: Funding rates indicate strengthening bullish sentiment among futures traders
Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, stated that the 30-day moving average of funding rates has shown a positive reversal, indicating an increase in bullish sentiment among futures traders. Moreno pointed out that this upward trend is occurring after a long period of decline, indicating that market participants may be turning more optimistic. Coinglass data shows that since the interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve on September 18th, the open interest-weighted funding rate of Ethereum has been trending positively, currently at 0.0089%.
At the same time, the increased demand in the US market has pushed Bitcoin up to $65,000, and the Bitcoin premium on the Coinbase platform has reached its highest level in two weeks.
MN Trading: Still bullish on altcoins despite losses of over 50%, ETF inflow trend will continue, Asia may provide momentum for the bull market
Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading, stated, “There is a large inflow of funds into Ethereum and Bitcoin ETFs. I believe this trend will continue, and these two blue-chip stocks are the best bets to hedge against the potential failure of the US dollar. At the same time, China is driving the market forward. Perhaps Asia will provide momentum for the bull market.”
He also said, “People have been mocking my actions in the altcoin portfolio. Yes, I have fallen by over 50%. However, if my fundamental theory is correct, I can accept a fall of over 50%. If this happens within 12-18 months, my portfolio will have at least a 10x return. In the last round, the third cycle, before making safer bets and having a larger AUM, there will naturally be a lower return on investment. Better times are ahead.”
Matrixport: Bitcoin price may rebound significantly in early October
Matrixport released a report stating that Bitcoin is likely to rebound by the end of the year, bringing surprises to many market participants. Although Bitcoin has been in a consolidation phase since reaching an all-time high in March 2024, the return rate from the beginning of the year is also around +49%, which is not far from the predicted +47% based on historical data. Based on the performance of Bitcoin in the past decade, there may be a significant price rebound in early October, which is an exciting period for participants in the cryptocurrency field. At the same time, the slight rebound in Ethereum transaction fees indicates that the summer consolidation phase may be ending. To judge the sustainability of the rebound, a deeper analysis of Ethereum’s revenue and transaction fee trends is needed to understand changes in market activity.
Charts released by Matrixport show that after the recent Federal Reserve interest rate meeting, Ethereum gas fees have risen, indicating a significant increase in network activity, which may indicate important changes in the cryptocurrency market. Despite negative news, the price of ETH has rebounded. Currently, the cryptocurrency market may be experiencing a high beta coefficient and high volatility uptrend, and the existing trend indicates that this momentum is expected to continue into the fourth quarter.
Another chart states that although Bitcoin has natural volatility, its funding rates have returned to near-zero levels, indicating that long positions in the futures market are not heavily weighted even in the recent Bitcoin rebound. This provides an opportunity for traders to increase long positions and may further push up prices. However, the low funding rates also indicate that the recent rise may be driven by spot buying, which tends to be more strategic and long-term rather than speculative futures trading. Overall, this is a positive signal indicating that the market is not excessively leveraged and still has upward potential in the future.
QCP Capital: Loose monetary policies of central banks around the world will drive cryptocurrency price increases
QCP Capital stated in a post that without macro catalysts in the United States, BTC has been fluctuating between $62,000 and $64,000. Key macro events to watch today include US GDP data and a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. The market will closely follow Powell’s speech to see if there are any changes in sentiment after last week’s FOMC press conference, which may suggest further easing. Last night, US presidential candidate Kamala Harris reiterated her support for cryptocurrencies, marking the second commitment this week to make the United States a dominant force in “artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and blockchain.” She also reiterated the inclusion of “digital assets” in her economic plan. With both US presidential candidates promising support for cryptocurrencies, it is a victory for the US cryptocurrency ecosystem regardless of which candidate is elected. With central banks around the world entering a loose monetary cycle, the expected influx of liquidity will drive cryptocurrency prices up.
At the same time, compared with the performance of Bitcoin, which had a growth rate of over 7% in September, one of the strongest September performances in history, the S&P 500 index rose 5.1% in the third quarter, the best performance for the same period since 1997. Global risk appetite is strong, and after China launched a large-scale real estate support plan, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 9% in a single day. QCP predicts that Bitcoin is expected to benefit from a possible stock market correction in the context of global monetary easing. QCP maintains a bullish view on Bitcoin in the medium term and believes that breaking $70,000 may trigger further upward momentum.
Bearish: Macro data and social media data do not necessarily indicate a bull market
BitMEX Chief Growth Officer: Market is in a rebound phase, but RRR indicator shows that it may be bearish for cryptocurrencies
Raphael Polansky, Chief Growth Officer of BitMEX, stated that although many people are cheering for the market rebound, one of BitMEX’s favorite macro indicators, RRP, shows signs of continued tightening liquidity this month. RRP has always been inversely correlated with the performance of Bitcoin. High RRP is usually bearish for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.
Santiment: Based on social media data, BTC will not hit a new high anytime soon
Santiment suggests that if investors are waiting to see Bitcoin hit a new all-time high, they may need to lower their expectations. Currently, the ratio of bearish posts to bullish posts on social media is 1:1.8. Historically, the market has always gone against people’s expectations.
Neutral: BTC has only found support
CryptoQuant: Short-term BTC holders have an average buy-in price of $63,000, which is expected to act as current support
CryptoQuant.com recently released a market outlook analysis stating that BTC has risen by over 23% in the past three weeks, from $52,500 to over $65,000. Part of the reason for this strong momentum is the increased demand for Bitcoin ETFs. Therefore, short-term holders are back in a profitable position. Short-term holders are investors who have transferred Bitcoin within the past 155 days, with an average purchase price of $63,000, which is expected to provide support. In addition, the futures market shows signs of overheating, with open interest positions of approximately $19.1 billion. Since March 2024, this indicator has exceeded $18 billion six times, each time followed by a price decline, and this is the seventh occurrence. At the same time, the conversion of Bitcoin ETF holdings into long-term holders’ supply. Although this seems bullish, such a transition usually occurs in the late stage of a bull market.
Bitfinex: BTC expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term
Analysts at Bitfinex stated that even if spot buyers’ demand weakens, ETF inflows can support the price of BTC. Continuous ETF inflows may boost the price of BTC. However, as the accumulation volume of spot trading tends to flatten when the price reaches $63,500, it is expected that BTC will fluctuate within a range in the short term.
Prominent trader Eugene: Reducing positions against the trend, strictly following the trading plan
Prominent trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on social media stating that he has reduced some positions and sold some assets, despite the FOMO everywhere, he is still trying to stick to the plan. Earlier reports stated that on September 25th, he expressed his view on the bull market on an X platform, stating, “I will not blindly desire more profits as the price rises. For me, the $65,000 to $68,000 range is a reasonable profit-taking range for early Bitcoin buyers. Many wait-and-see funds will make their final entry at $65,000, which may also mean that this is the final upward momentum. I don’t think it will break the upper limit of $70,000 before the US election, so I won’t choose to increase my holdings here. If it reaches $68,000, I would prefer to liquidate and re-enter the $60,000 region after the price falls.”
