Recently, the news of the well-known media “Blue Fox Notes” planning to shut down its knowledge community has been widely circulated online.
According to the Blue Fox Notes team, they were able to grasp the major trends in the previous two cycles based on fundamental value analysis, which brought a lot of insights to users. However, in this cycle, the previous value analysis method seems to be less effective, so the team has decided to close its operations on the knowledge community.
In the comments on this news, many messages expressed regret and also showed helplessness and pessimism towards “value analysis”, with some even saying “it’s better to gamble on ‘MEME coins’ than to invest in ‘value coins'”.
“Blue Fox Notes” is one of the media outlets in the industry that I highly respect. Many of its articles have provided valuable inspiration and food for thought during the previous DeFi boom, making it a serious and insightful media outlet. What is even more admirable is that, in such a difficult environment in China, “Blue Fox Notes” has consistently produced valuable articles.
So, I am also very regretful about its decision to close this communication channel.
However, I disagree with the pessimistic sentiment towards “value analysis” expressed in the comments section.
In the past two years of market trends, we can clearly see two very special phenomena in the crypto ecosystem:
First, a large number of tokens have obtained high fully diluted market values before they have truly played a role and developed an ecosystem. Users have compared the difference in token valuations between this cycle and the previous one: in the previous cycle, the fully diluted market value of many value coins was only around a few million dollars when they were first listed, while in this cycle, many tokens have reached billions of dollars upon listing. This greatly overdrew their future upward potential, causing them to lack the momentum to rise even in a favorable market.
Many “value coins” are like this.
Second, the trend of MEME coins has followed one after another.
In this trend, the popularity of MEME coins has surpassed the past, blossoming on various chains such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and BASE…
These MEME coins not only have astonishing price increases but also cover players from various ecosystems. Unlike in the past, where only players in the Ethereum and Dogecoin ecosystems had the opportunity to catch limited MEME coins.
In such a situation, it seems that as long as you catch the trend of any MEME coin, retail investors can reap substantial returns. Participating in MEME coins not only has no technical barriers but also avoids being manipulated by institutional investors. This is much more cost-effective than participating in so-called “value coins”.
There are many reasons for these phenomena, and in my opinion, one important reason is that Ethereum, which occupies a dominant position in the application scenarios of the crypto ecosystem, has not seen any innovative applications or disruptive scenes that have become explosive in the past two years of development.
This has led to funds constantly searching for MEME coins that have emotional value and can quickly attract users, making MEME coins the objects of pursuit.
Regarding these phenomena, I will take a longer-term perspective. Because I always believe that only by looking at problems with a long-term perspective can we filter out short-term noise and grasp the fundamental vitality and potential of the crypto ecosystem.
From a long-term perspective, to promote the growth of the crypto ecosystem and drive the appreciation of crypto assets, we still need real ecological applications. Only applications can solve the problems in the crypto ecosystem and provide continuous value to users.
Most MEME coins provide emotional value, but emotions change over time, and few MEME coins can provide continuous value for users’ changing emotions. Therefore, most MEME coins will eventually disappear, and the few that can survive either have irreplaceable historical value or have evolved into value coins with application value—this is a return to value, a return to fundamentals.
So I believe that the prices and values of most MEME coins, which currently seem lively, are difficult to sustain in the long run. We cannot assume that the majority of them have continuous and stable value just because they are currently lively.
Many value coins that currently seem to have inflated prices lack value empowerment and conversion, and some of them have been artificially boosted, but they still have intrinsic value, and many projects have good intrinsic value and can develop steadily and continuously. I believe that once there is a suitable opportunity in the future, they will eventually explode.
As for the stories of “XXX getting rich with MEME”, I suggest approaching them with caution.
I don’t believe that most people can get rich by buying and selling MEME coins and truly hold onto that wealth. It is difficult for ordinary investors to grasp the appropriate buying and selling points from the large fluctuations of MEME coins, and even if they are lucky enough to seize such opportunities, they are unlikely to heavily invest in MEME coins—which is no different from gambling.
So let’s treat MEME coins as a game, participate with an attitude of entertainment and jokes, and if we can gain a small fortune that brings happiness, that is great.
In the end, it is still value coins, especially Bitcoin and Ethereum, that will give us the confidence to move forward with full determination, achieving wealth upgrading in a stable, continuous, and long-lasting way.