Author:
Crypto, Distilled
Translated by: TechFlow
When will the consolidation end? Despite widespread pessimism and anger, the price of $BTC has only dropped by 15% from its high. Renowned trader @BobLoukas brings hope: darkness before dawn, mid-cycle accumulation, and peak in the cycle. Here are his key points.
Monthly chart:
We reached the all-time high of the previous cycle in the 16th month, which took over two years in the previous cycle. Currently, we are in the third month of consolidation. Historically, $BTC pauses after reaching an all-time high and then reaches the final cycle peak. Longer consolidation implies a healthier and stronger uptrend next time.
Weekly chart:
After the ETF news, we have been consolidating for 14 weeks, dropping 12% from the high. The oscillation is expected after almost doubling from the recent low in January 2024. The 7-week low point in January was at $38,000 (double the price).
Why isn’t the market going up?
Bob points out several key factors:
Whales from the previous cycle selling near $60,000
Concerns about a potential monthly double top
Outflow of funds from GBTC (selling pressure)
Transition from on-chain assets to ETF assets
Anticipation of ETF already priced in
Rise in the fourth quarter of 2023 driven by ETF speculation
When will the consolidation end?
Be patient, as we have already tripled since September 2023 and need a pullback. Similar to the doubling after the first quarter of 2023, a broad base forms before the rise in the fourth quarter. The consolidation may continue until July or August to complete the bottoming process.
When might the market peak?
According to the 4-year cycle, the peak may be far off. Past cycles have typically taken 33-35 months from low to high. Following this pattern, October 2025 is a possible peak (16-17 months away). The significant gap between the 10-month moving average and the price suggests a potential need for a pullback.
Why is everyone so angry?
Bob explains that this bull market feels challenging for many:
Chasing speculative altcoins (intense competition among investors)
Waiting for a 30-35% drop, missing out, then buying at the high
Possible scenarios
We may soon see the next local bottom, possibly by the end of the month. Bullish signs include higher lows well above the January 2024 low, indicating market strength.
After this local bottom, one scenario is a swift recovery to reclaim the high.
The second possibility is a continued oscillation in price trends. This phase could last until September, forming a local bottom without breaking the all-time high.
The third possibility is another 30% drop, typical in past bull markets. Similar to 2017, but now with ETFs, which is a significant difference. Some believe that reaching around $55,000 with ETFs is impossible, but Bob strongly disagrees.
Convergence of trends
All three trends may converge around October, November, and December 2024, aiming to break the all-time high and further rise. During this period, Bitcoin’s trends may significantly impact the investment returns of altcoins.
Emotional reset:
Bob believes that the market sentiment reboot after the April surge is positive. On-chain data shows a shift towards long-term holders. With new holders accumulating in higher ranges, a solid foundation is formed. The dip could be a buying opportunity.
Bob’s buying strategy
Bob’s last purchase was near the cycle low at around $17,000. Now, he is looking for potential buying opportunities for $BTC below $50,000. He suggests that those with insufficient positions consider adding during this consolidation period.
Macro top in 2025
Bob expects the second phase of the cycle to be healthier. He believes the market peak will occur in the latter half of this cycle. However, the timing of the peak may vary, possibly in the second quarter of 2024 (30th month) or earlier, unlikely to be in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Original article link
Darkness Before Dawn When Will the Consolidation End What is the Future Trend of the Market