What impact does Trump’s conviction have on American society and the economy?

The conviction cannot determine Trump’s success or failure in the election.
On Thursday (May 30th), former US President Trump was found guilty in the “hush money” case, marking the beginning of a new era of uncertainty in American politics.
The Manhattan jury ruled that all 34 charges of Trump’s falsification of business records were proven, and sentencing will be announced on July 11th.
Prior to this, there have been some situations in American politics this year that could overturn people’s traditional views. For example, opinion polls show that voters are unwilling to attribute the improvement of their average standard of living to the current president.
Supporting leaders who make them materially wealthier has always been one of the clearest guidelines in American politics. Now, voters have to face the fact that another major party candidate has been found guilty for the first time on the eve of the presidential election.
It is expected that Trump will appeal the above ruling.


Recently, investors have been more concerned about whether to buy or sell Nvidia (NVDA), rather than whether Trump is guilty. However, the difficulty in predicting the outcome of the November election and the significant policy differences between the two presidential candidates have increased the risk of a political storm in November.
Uncertainty during election years puts pressure on economic growth. If there is a change in the White House, it will suggest that federal policies may change, thereby reducing companies’ willingness to make long-term spending decisions. Trump’s conviction may exacerbate the impact of this factor because it will take some time to see how the case will develop, making it more difficult to predict what a potential “Trump 2.0” would look like.
In recent months, polling agencies have been trying to determine whether Trump’s conviction will bring new information to voters. A survey released by Quinnipiac University on May 22nd showed that 70% of voters are paying close attention to news related to the trial to some extent. Only 6% of Trump supporters said that if he is convicted, they are unlikely to vote for him, while 24% of voters said they are more likely to vote for him if he is convicted.
Is this enough to affect the outcome in several swing states that will determine the election? It should be noted that the theory the prosecution relies on is that Trump’s team believed his actions were important to the voters. According to the government, the payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels was made to prevent the public from knowing about Trump’s relationship with her before November 2016. In addition, Trump’s public image has been damaged by the release of the Access Hollywood tape that showed him making derogatory remarks about women. (Trump previously stated that the payments to key witness Cohen were for legal services and denied having an extramarital affair with Daniels.)
In 2020, voters already know these two stories, and Trump lost the election that year by a narrow margin. Furthermore, since the start of this trial, stories about Trump’s behavior have dominated the news headlines for weeks, yet he still has a slight lead in national polls.
One reason for this may be that national polls do not accurately reflect what voters will do in November, especially with several months left until the election.
It is too demanding to try to understand the changes that will happen in the lives of hundreds of millions of Americans over the next four years through a simple “yes” or “no” decision made in November. Of course, Americans will continue to do so.
John Dickerson, a well-known journalist from CBS, explained his view on what he called the “impossible presidency” in 2018. He wrote, “America is a country obsessed with the president, to the point where we undermine our own constitutional democracy.” No one, whether physically, mentally, or logistically, can bear all the tasks that a president is required to bear. Dickerson wrote, “No one, man or woman, can represent the competing interests of 327 million American citizens.” (The current US population is 337 million.)
Some people certainly consider their vote as a moral recognition of a person. Left-wing voters who threatened to abandon Biden because of his support for Israel are acting on this idea.
But literally, the meaning of “a vote for president” goes far beyond granting a candidate the right to sleep in the Lincoln Bedroom at the White House. It also entails commanding the military, controlling the executive branch, nominating judges, and countless regulatory powers. Victory is also a recognition of Americans’ loyalty to society—we all hope to support the winning team.
In this sense, it is easy to conclude that voters should not support a damaged candidate. In addition, Trump has propagated the malicious idea that the court’s decision is the result of politically motivated persecution. Appeals are also likely to change the final outcome, and anyone who believes in the strength of the American legal system needs to consider that this system may make mistakes out of good intentions.
This does not mean that conviction means Trump will win or lose the election. Everything is still uncertain, and a clearer analysis and judgment can only be made when opinion polls continue to show a decisive step in one direction or another, and to be honest, that point will not come until November 5th.
But this also does not mean that the conviction is not important. If Trump loses, some voters will believe that it is because the political elite have united against him. In America, with its already “calcified” political system, it is difficult to judge what this angry energy will bring, although it is easy to see where the pressure points are. The US Congress has had little impact this year and is hovering on the brink of a debt default. If voters continue to support candidates who refuse to reduce debt, it will be difficult to improve this situation.
What if Trump wins? The rule of law supports the health of the market and the abundant returns it has brought in recent years. The S&P 500 is made up of “profit machines” that have thrived in challenging environments and will not be easily eliminated. With a president like Trump who believes the legal system has been “weaponized” against him, the ability of American companies to thrive will be tested. However, these effects may not be immediately apparent.
The impact on American companies is the most important. For the broader political system and the US economy, the results of this decisive moment in Trump’s legal issues will bring uncertainty.