“Editor’s Picks of the Week” is a “functional” section of Odaily Planet Daily. While Odaily Planet Daily covers a lot of real-time news every week, it also releases many high-quality in-depth analysis articles. However, these articles may be hidden in the information flow and hot news, passing by you without notice.
Therefore, our editorial department will select some high-quality articles worth reading and collecting from the content published in the past 7 days every Saturday. From the perspectives of data analysis, industry judgment, and viewpoint output, we will bring you new inspiration in the encrypted world.
Now, let’s read together:
Investment
Glassnode: How to Determine Market Bottom and Entry Time?
Short-term holders are usually newcomers or speculative traders who are more sensitive to price changes. During a bull market, these investors often suffer the most losses because they are more easily influenced by market fluctuations and sell their holdings. This phenomenon makes the analysis of short-term holders particularly valuable when it comes to identifying market bottoms.
The article further provides the method of using specific indicators and real-time monitoring websites.
Narrative Trading Guide: From Discovering Trends to Profit Strategies
Most major narratives go through three stages: first, some smart money starts buying tokens related to potential upcoming narratives. Then, a few less popular X accounts start sharing bullish arguments about the narrative on X. Finally, everyone starts talking about the narrative on X, and the price of tokens related to it rises sharply. This is a good opportunity to start making profits. Use on-chain data to gain an advantage, build your network, and monitor smart money wallets.
As for exit strategies, it depends on the type of narrative being traded:
1. Major unexpected news (real-world asset narratives caused by BlackRock’s announcement of tokenized funds) – Most of these narratives only last a few weeks. The best practice when trading these narratives is to gradually take profits during the upward trend instead of closing the entire position at once.
2. Upcoming catalysts (the cryptocurrency AI narrative in early 2024 caused by high expectations for the upcoming NVIDIA AI conference) – In most cases, token prices related to these narratives reach local highs a few days before the catalyst date. Take significant profits a few days before the catalyst, or even consider closing the entire position.
3. Secondary market speculation (GameFi is one of the narratives loved by retail investors) – In most cases, this will continue until the end of the bull market.
Comprehensive Interpretation: Why is This Bull Market Different?
Compared to the previous “liquidity-driven bull market,” this time we can clearly feel that “funds are not as abundant,” and the data also supports this.
The current cycle also reflects the following phenomena: there is almost no general upward trend; different participants do not take over from each other; Memecoins > Value coins; strange airdrops; BTC ecosystem narratives are quiet; the gaming industry is exploring.
Galaxy Digital: Is Bitcoin a Financial Asset or a Technological Tool?
Thorn emphasizes the potential for companies to use Bitcoin technology for global remittances, stating that companies can benefit from solutions such as LightSpark, OpenNode, and Voltage, which help use the Bitcoin Lightning Network as a payment channel without holding assets.
Institutions now have various ways to acquire Bitcoin. Financial leaders are increasingly realizing the unsustainability of US government bonds, making Bitcoin an increasingly attractive investment. Curiosity from long-term investors such as endowment funds and pension funds is growing, and they are re-engaging with Bitcoin after initial hesitation. These investors have longer investment horizons and consider Bitcoin as a hedge tool in a volatile risk environment. Bitcoin is in a gap between risk and hedge.
ETH ETF Narrative Trading Guide: Seize the Golden Opportunity of the ETH Ecosystem and RWA Sector
With the approval of the ETH ETF by the SEC, a more dovish stance on cryptocurrencies is marked, which means that institution-driven RWA assets will also see more capital inflows (as we have seen in the relationship between ONDO and BlackRock).
The “ETH argument” of institutions has always been tokenization, stablecoins, real-world settlement – major institutions will talk about RWA assets on Ethereum everywhere; after all, this has always been the main narrative of ETH.
Therefore, the author recommends going long on ETH and its best beta; going long on RWA, especially ONDO.
“The Altcoin Season” is Coming? How to Develop Investment Theme Strategies
Successful investors usually prioritize investment themes based on in-depth research and analysis rather than engaging in short-term speculation. This approach helps them make more rational and sustainable investment decisions.
Overview of Multicoin Capital Investment Map: Favoring Public Chains, DeFi, and Other Infrastructure
Entrepreneurship
In Conversation with Ansem: Decrypting the Rise of Solana in the Cryptocurrency Market
The rapid development of Solana and the firm support of its community are key factors in its success. Another important advantage is Solana’s development speed. Solana’s uniqueness in the development community lies in its top-down development approach, adopting a “fast action, fast fix” strategy.
Ansem explicitly stated that Solana is his favorite ecosystem, with Base coming in second.
Ansem suggests allocating 70% of the investment portfolio to relatively safe assets, such as Solana, Coinbase stocks, Bitcoin, and Prime.
A Hands-on Guide to Managing Social Media Accounts by the Head of a16z Social Media
Produce high-quality content that is easy to share, attract target audiences by asking sincere questions, never slack off in community management, use newsletters, podcasts, and other social channels to guide early fans on Twitter/X, use existing networks for dissemination, cleverly use memes, and establish a replicable framework.
In general, social media management is an art of seeking consensus.
Also recommended: “Becoming a Web3 Developer: Why and How.”
Meme
MIIX Capital: PEPE Project Research Report
Initially, MemeCoins were mainly concentrated in the ETH ecosystem. With the rise of high-performance networks, the Solana network has become an important network for MemeCoin trading, and its community’s enthusiastic participation has made it the center of a vibrant memecoin market. After the Denchun upgrade, the Base Chain also became a major platform for trading MemeCoins, benefiting from the significant reduction in transaction fees on DEX.
In the first quarter of 2024, MemeCoins became the most profitable cryptocurrency track, with an average return rate of 1312.6%. The TOP 5 are DOGE, SHIB, PEPE, WIF, and FLOKI.
After the consensus demand for Meme narratives reaches saturation, it will turn to pursue substantive functional exploration to expand users and support market value.
As a MemeCoin project, PEPE lacks substantial product and technical support. At the same time, the black history of malicious cash-outs by the PEPE team in the past and the potential legal scrutiny faced by the founder add more uncertainties to PEPE’s development, which is also a risk factor to consider when investing in PEPE. However, PEPE’s inherent viral properties give it a unique comparative advantage, and its success in community and cultural narratives has established a place in the MemeCoin market. The continued speculation by a large number of whales also provides a growth foundation for PEPE in the long term.
In terms of current market value, compared to DOGE and SHIB, PEPE is relatively undervalued and has the opportunity to achieve higher growth in the next bull market.
Ethereum and Scalability
The Ethereum Foundation Has No Dreams
Since last year’s EDCON in Montenegro, dissatisfaction with the Ethereum Foundation has begun to surface in the industry. This organization seems to have entered a mid-life crisis and is facing difficulties in structure, efficiency, and culture, which are becoming apparent as Solana rises again. After ETH officially became a global asset, the Ethereum Foundation seems to have become the biggest burden on this ecosystem.
The current EF is like the “congress” of Ethereum, and the EIPs written by researchers can directly change the direction and pattern of Ethereum, affecting an ecosystem industry worth billions of dollars. With the increasing number and scale of ecosystem participants, EIPs involve more and more interests. Each participant hopes to receive “special treatment” in upgrades like L2, but it is impossible to align everyone’s interests with Ethereum. Therefore, EF researchers have become “legislators” that capital must win over.
Unlike most public chains, Ethereum does not have an “Ethereum Labs,” so EF has become the only entity that controls the entire ecosystem. However, as a “neutral organization,” it is difficult for EF to personally intervene in many things in the ecosystem. This makes EF appear more like an image of “governance without action” and also makes it difficult for EF to align with all the interests of Ethereum.Team competition seems to be ineffective. In comparison, EF seems reluctant to get their hands dirty. In the Ethereum community, you can indeed express different opinions, but interestingly, these opinions often focus on pure technical discussions, and you rarely see EF researchers engaging in heated debates about the direction, governance, and culture of Ethereum. It seems that the current Ethereum world is missing many things, and its culture is like a poison, losing the ability to think critically on certain issues.
The market needs Vitalik’s care, and EF needs the market’s support, so EF surrounds Vitalik, letting the market revolve around them, and in the end, Vitalik becomes the “hard currency” of Ethereum.
When many major protocols “escape” from Ethereum, they still face moral judgment from Vitalik or EF. Perhaps they hope that the protocol can survive on its own, but development teams clearly do not want to die with Ethereum. Applications always serve users, not the blockchain, although security is an important criterion considered by many blue-chip protocols when deploying, completely ignoring the user environment and the market is equally foolish.
Multi-ecosystem
Interpreting the potential impact of Solana’s new proposal to reward validators with 100% priority fees
On May 28th, the Solana validator community approved the Solana Improvement Document (SIMD)-0096 proposal through a vote. This proposal sends all transaction priority fees to validators, changing the previous allocation of 50% burn fees and 50% reward fees to validators, with the aim of improving validator income and network security. In the proposal forum, validators erupted in a round of disputes over token economic models, governance vulnerabilities, and insider manipulation.
DeFi
In-depth analysis of the ENA project
BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes attempted to value ENA using a valuation similar to Ondo. His valuation model is based on 80% of the long-term split being allocated to staked USDe (sUSDe), and 20% of the generated revenue being allocated to the Ethena protocol. The FDV derived from the valuation similar to Ondo is $189 billion, which is equivalent to a token price of $12.6.
SocialFi
Impressions from attending Farcon: Why is a16z willing to bet big on the next generation social network Farcaster?
Channel and Frame are key to user participation. Channels facilitate centralized community discussions by embedding URLs, while Frames turn broadcasts into interactive applications, supporting activities such as NFT minting, voting, and secure transactions. These features promote diverse and personalized content supply and enhance user experience.
Farcaster’s open social graph and content algorithm provide unique opportunities for developing diverse clients. Potential customers include applications focused on AI, video, and audio. This openness mitigates platform risks, allows for innovation, and is expected to create a “magic moment” for successful social applications.
Farcaster’s ID registry can serve as the foundational identity layer in Web3, addressing authentication and accountability issues. It provides secure, verifiable identities linked to various Web3 services, enhancing trust and transparency while managing ownership and responsibility in decentralized environments.
The main challenges include potential issues in importing a 1:1 social graph from existing platforms, resilience during bear markets, managing bots and automated accounts, and achieving mainstream adoption beyond the crypto community. Addressing these challenges is crucial for Farcaster’s long-term success.
Farcaster’s decentralized and open infrastructure paves the way for innovative applications and user-controlled social media landscapes. By focusing on strategic planning, community engagement, and user-centric features, Farcaster can overcome its challenges and lead the next wave of social media, providing a more secure, dynamic, and user-driven platform.
Web3
Finding the next killer app in crypto: The convergence of content publishers and exchanges
The fusion of Web3 publishers and exchanges into unified publisher-exchanges accelerates the creation and adoption of new applications. A representative case of consumer-facing crypto applications is Frames.
Web2 publisher-exchanges adopting crypto payments are poised to welcome the next billion users.
There are two notable features that could make Web3 significantly superior to Web2: protocol credit issuance and the gradual phasing out of cookies.
We are currently in a stage where the infrastructure is good enough. The benefits of adopting crypto payments may now outweigh their perceived risks. In particular, Web2 publisher-exchanges have a unique opportunity to be early adopters of cryptocurrencies. Publisher-exchanges represent the future of e-commerce. As information becomes democratized and accessible, so will currency.
The next wave of narrative speculation in the crypto AI space: Catalysts, development paths, and related targets
From the supply side of the industry, there are four major driving forces behind the energy and data tracks of AI opportunities: algorithms, algorithmic models, energy, and data.
The second perspective on the AI narrative is the moment of GPT, the advent of general artificial intelligence.
The risks of these two narrative speculations lie in the energy aspect, with the potential decline in energy consumption due to GPU updates, and the data aspect, with the Q* plan achieving “self-generated data,” and the advent of AGI: OpenAI’s concerns.
A deep understanding of the inspiration behind Orb Land, which Vitalik endorsed – Harberger taxes, shared ownership, and anti-monopoly
The shared ownership system brings liquidity to assets through mandatory means, avoiding the unfairness brought by monopolies. Its institutional design mainly includes self-assessment and public pricing, continuous auction mechanisms, and tax usage.
A week in review
In the past week,
Mt.Gox confirms Bitcoin transfer in preparation for the October 31st deadline for creditor repayment (Market Impact Analysis);
In terms of policies and macro markets, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission’s period of not taking action against virtual asset trading platforms in Hong Kong will end on June 1st;
In terms of opinions and voices, Trump vows to ensure the future of cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin in the US, promising to pardon Silk Road founder and supporting the cryptocurrency industry against Biden’s crackdown; due to their support for the cryptocurrency industry, Trump’s popularity on platforms such as Polymarket has increased;
Trump faces 34 charges, becoming the first former president in US history to be convicted on criminal charges; insiders reveal that Biden’s campaign team has changed its stance and started reaching out to key figures in the crypto industry;
Former CFTC chairman believes that cryptocurrencies will eventually reign supreme in the US; the president of the NYSE considers offering cryptocurrency trading services if US regulations become clearer; JPMorgan expresses doubt over the approval of Solana and other cryptocurrency ETFs by the US SEC; QCP Capital believes ETH will continue to rise due to Trump’s support for cryptocurrencies, approaching $4,000; Bitfinex Alpha suggests that ETH faces a key resistance level at $4,000, and if successfully broken, it may experience a strong rally; Bernstein states that ETH is the first tokenized equity proof of stake token to be approved for an ETF, and similar tokens like SOL may benefit; Glassnode reports that long-term Bitcoin holders have returned to accumulation mode for the first time since December last year;
Grayscale believes that there is limited room for further price increases for ETH, and Solana may capture market share; Trusta Labs claims to never report any witch addresses;
Casey advises only using a small position for gambling and using the rest to buy Bitcoin; 0x Research suggests that Chiliz (CHZ) may experience a surge due to the start of the European Championship on June 14th, and if the inflation rate is 3.3% or lower, Bitcoin may reach a new all-time high; Vitalik discusses the trend of cultural diversification in the Ethereum ecosystem, with Layer 2 becoming the birthplace of different cultures; Polyhedra responds to conflicts with zkSync by using ZKJ trading codes;
In terms of institutions, large companies, and major projects, Apple unveils its new strategy “Project Greymatter” and plans to integrate AI tools into core applications such as Safari and Photos; friend.tech co-founder implies intention to move out of the protocol due to unstable relations with Base, resulting in a 32% drop in FRIEND 24H; Aave plans to launch the Aave Network after V4, expected to be implemented next year; EOS Network Foundation releases the first part of the new EOS token economics, with staking rewards expected to start at the end of June, and the new token economics proposal has been approved;
Questions raised over ZKasino’s refund claims, with community feedback stating that the 72-hour refund process is too short;
In the meme and GameFi space, Caitlyn Jenner launches another meme coin; STEPN and STEPN GO will develop simultaneously, with GMT still being the main governance token;
In terms of security, Normie suffers a flash loan attack; well-known trader GCR X’s account is hacked after tweeting “heavily long ORDI,” causing a short-term rally in ORDI… Well, it’s been an eventful week.
Attached is the “Editor’s Pick of the Week” series.
