The Big Short Analysis of BTC Secondary Market

Author: Liu Jiaolian
“This is the best of times, this is the worst of times; this is the age of wisdom, this is the age of foolishness; this is the epoch of belief, this is the epoch of incredulity; this is the season of light, this is the season of darkness; this is the spring of hope, this is the winter of despair; we have everything before us, we have nothing before us; we are all going to heaven, we are all going the other way.” This is the opening paragraph of Dickens’ “A Tale of Two Cities.” Perhaps this is also an apt footnote to the “Belief-Denial” stage in which the current BTC secondary market finds itself.
Yesterday’s [2024.6.28 Jiaolian Internal Reference: Next Support Level, 55-56k?] mentioned the latest US core PCE price inflation data, which dropped from 2.8% in April to 2.6% in May, as expected. Although this is one of the indicators that the Federal Reserve claims is most closely watched in its interest rate cut decision, the continued decline and approach to the 2% target of PCE data are at odds with the recent tough stance of the Federal Reserve to repeatedly postpone the interest rate cut.
What the Federal Reserve is thinking is only clear to itself. The market speculates, but cannot fathom the thoughts of the Federal Reserve.
Seeing a chartist, The Great Martis, draw a double-headed downward graph, was really frightening:
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Looking at these chartists (or technical analysts) performing, it becomes increasingly clear how unreliable these things are.
This graph can be interpreted in a completely opposite way: the end of February, the end of April, and the end of June, these were clearly three tests of the $60,000 support. Three bottom tests, does it mean a surge?
Some may argue that the test at the end of February and early March was clearly a breakthrough from below, so why is it a bottom test?
Those who only look at the charts and do not understand the basic knowledge of BTC are like blindfolded donkeys, spinning themselves on the millstone.
BTC underwent a halving in April. By retracing and adjusting the historical trends before the halving, with the bottom before March as the support point, turning it over, is actually a high decline, touching the bottom of $60,000, and then oscillating in the $60,000-70,000 range.
So this oscillation and washout is a bottom consolidation, not a top consolidation.
Jiaolian is not saying that the above is correct, but that this kind of chart can come up with a seemingly reasonable explanation and argument whether it’s right side up or upside down. In the end, it depends on what you believe in your heart.
This big short also drew a graphic of an epic stock market crash:
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People have been aware since 2019 or even after 2015 that the world economy is entering a recession and depression.
The miserable scene of the Great Depression in the United States from 1929 to 1933, how many people still remember it?
Compared to the white-collar workers at the time who dared not tell their families, put on suits in the morning, tied their ties, pretended to go to work, and then went to the trash cans to pick up food, today’s depression seems far less severe.
Is the Federal Reserve not afraid to see the Yellow River before it dies? Without causing a major collapse, it will stick to high interest rates, not retreating at all.
Perhaps you and I still have some time to prepare for the possible financial collapse.
The key and difficulty lie in knowing where to be destroyed and where the refuge is.