Yesterday, the US stock market and bond market were closed for Memorial Day. However, later this week, there will be significant data releases including GDP and PCE inflation data, which is why it is considered a “short but busy week.”
Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar
In the realm of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin has once again surpassed the $70,000 mark after trading sideways for almost a week. The market’s bullish sentiment seems to have been influenced by the continuous influx of ETF investments. Considering that the US stock market was closed for the holiday, analysis platform Santiment views this upward trend as an encouraging sign. It demonstrates that BTC can perform well even when its correlation with traditional finance (TradFi) is not as tight.
Source: TradingView; Farside Investors
However, the development of events hasn’t been entirely smooth. Just after Bitcoin broke the $70,000 barrier, news broke that Mt. Gox’s cold wallet had transferred 12.24k BTC to unmarked addresses, worth approximately $840 million. In 2014, the collapse of Mt. Gox had a devastating impact on creditors, and the exchange has been attempting to recover funds for the past decade to repay them. Today, this on-chain transfer of BTC is seen by some traders as a potential catalyst for selling pressure and bearish sentiment, causing the BTC price to rapidly drop below $68,000.
Source: Twitter
In the options market, attention has once again turned to BTC. The rollercoaster ride in the past 24 hours, along with concerns about potential selling pressure, has increased implied volatility. The overall shape of the IV curve has flattened and risen, with a quick skew towards bearish options after the price decline. Looking at the trades, the largest BTC transaction in the past month involved a “Short Risky” strategy (selling 450 BTC per leg) in June. It involved selling the 75,000-Call and buying the 65,000-Put as protection, with a net premium of approximately 2 BTC.
Source: Deribit (as of 28 MAY 16:00 UTC+8)
Source: SignalPlus
Source: SignalPlus
Data Source: Deribit, Overall Distribution of ETH Trades
Data Source: Deribit, Overall Distribution of BTC Trades
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade
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