On June 24th, Bitcoin fell below its recent high of $64,000, dropping further today to below $54,000, marking a 24-hour decline of 8.8%. The ongoing “6.18 Shopping Festival” has extended into a sharp downturn known to crypto enthusiasts as Black Friday.
Previously, according to crypto analyst Ignas, Bitcoin’s price appears to have been artificially suppressed by deceptive sell orders from whales, prompting retail and institutional investors to sell off for hedging purposes. Whether this scenario holds, on-chain data indeed serves as a leading indicator for market trends.
With data assistance from 0x Scope, BlockBeats compiled whale trading trends involving single ETH swaps exceeding $300,000 between June 24th and July 4th. This analysis also utilized Fibonacci retracement indicators from Trading View Pro to predict potential resistance and support levels for Bitcoin prices.
Fibonacci retracement is a technical analysis tool used to identify potential support and resistance levels in financial markets, based on a sequence of numbers discovered by Italian mathematician Fibonacci. Key retracement levels include 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6%. These levels are calculated by drawing horizontal lines between a trend’s high and low points. For instance, Bitcoin’s price retracement may find support around $51,500, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from recent highs to lows. This price area previously witnessed brief consolidation before Bitcoin’s final surge, further reinforcing $51,500 as a potential support level.
Moving to the data:
ETH derivatives (including ezETH, weETH, wstETH, stETH, rETH, cbETH, mETH, sfrxETH, swETH, frxETH, uniETH, pufETH, rswETH, rsETH, etc.)
Between June 24th and July 4th, whales executed a total of 1116 ETH transactions, comprising 697 buys and 419 sells. Purchases totaled 210,922.01 ETH valued at approximately $740,328,736.22, while sales amounted to 123,136.27 ETH valued at about $430,677,058.52. During this period, 186 whales net bought 87,785.74 ETH, valued at roughly $309,651,677.70, whereas 204 whales net sold the same amount of ETH.
BTC wrapped versions (including tBTC, WBTC, etc.)
During the same period, whales conducted 89 BTC transactions, consisting of 55 buys and 34 sells. Buys totaled 1,743.79 BTC valued at approximately $107,920,685.42, while sells amounted to 414.55 BTC valued at about $25,479,089.16. In this timeframe, 28 whales net bought 1,329.24 BTC, valued at roughly $82,441,596.26, and 20 whales net sold the same amount of BTC.
Excluding ETH and BTC, whales predominantly sold off other altcoins, with net buying observed only for MKR and LDO.
MKR
During June 24th to July 4th, whales executed 17 MKR transactions, comprising 12 buys and 5 sells. Buys totaled 4,313.68 MKR valued at approximately $10,798,758.34, while sells amounted to 1,817.12 MKR valued at about $4,408,743.63. Six whales net bought 2,496.56 MKR, valued at roughly $6,390,014.71, whereas three whales net sold the same amount of MKR.
LDO
During the same period, whales executed 2 LDO transactions, all buys. They purchased a total of 378,496.10 LDO valued at approximately $727,684.08, with no sales recorded.
Other tokens like ONDO, PEIPEI, PEPE, BEAM, FLOKI, AQTIS, PEAS, 1INCH, and WOJAK also saw varying transactional activities among whales during this timeframe.
