After more than a decade of development, the blockchain industry seems to have gathered momentum and reached a crossroads of widespread application. From the DeFi craze to the NFT boom, from the explosion of P2E games to the rise of Web3 social media, and now the hot concepts of “DePin” and “Web3+AI,” there are countless ecosystems and projects in the industry. However, none of them have succeeded in promoting Web3 to the general public.
Looking at the big picture, aside from the biases and other factors that exist in mainstream society, the complex concepts of blockchain and encrypted applications, such as smart contracts, addresses, and private key management, are not only innovative compared to traditional systems, but also serve as shackles that are difficult to remove. Strengthening users’ perception of Web3 elements often creates a contrast between high barriers, high costs, and poor user experience, which is the main reason that hinders the widespread adoption of Web3.
However, technological innovation has never been an overnight process in completely changing the lives of ordinary people. It is certain that any emerging technology is not fully mature when it enters the market and usually requires long-term iterative upgrades. As the saying goes, “Learn from the past to prepare for the future.” By drawing inspiration from experiences and practices in related industries or fields, we can gain more ideas and creativity to enlighten the Web3 industry.
Massive applications require low barriers and simplification
Looking back at the exploration and development of the early computer industry, there are similarities with the current predicament of Web3. In the 1960s and 1970s, computers were mainly used for academic research and government institutions. During this period, computers could only be operated through command lines, which were complex in programming and operation, requiring users to have considerable expertise and high entry barriers. As the computer industry developed, its applications began to spread to more sectors of the economy. In the late 1970s, the boom of personal computers emerged, with legendary figures like Steve Jobs and Bill Gates stepping onto the stage of history. The graphical user interface (GUI), which is now commonplace, played a significant role in their success.
The graphical user interface refers to a computer operating user interface that uses graphical elements. It was initially developed by the innovative research institution, the Palo Alto Research Center (PARC). Compared to the command-line interface used in early computers, the graphical interface not only reduces the burden on users but is also visually more appealing and significantly reduces the learning curve for new users.
In 1979, Steve Jobs discovered this technology at PARC and was immediately captivated by its charm. He quickly believed that it was the future of personal computers and applied this interface to Apple’s products, releasing Apple Lisa and Macintosh computers (later simply referred to as Mac). Microsoft quickly followed suit and released the Windows 1.0 operating system based on the GUI concept. With the commercialization of GUI, its intuitive, user-friendly, and simple operation greatly reduced the barriers to computer use, allowing users to operate computers without much specialized knowledge. After more than a decade of technological iterations, personal computers became ordinary electronic products for the general public.
In the business world, this approach of simplifying products to low barriers and simplicity has been proven successful in numerous cases. They all point to a common idea that products tailored to users’ simplicity and low barriers are the ones that are suitable for the general public. In addition to user-friendly products exemplified by the graphical user interface, grasping the long-tail market is another secret to achieving commercial success in the internet industry.
Can the long-tail market be replicated in Web3?
With the emergence of e-commerce platforms and retail models, cultural and entertainment products have broken free from the limitations of physical reality, and an economy driven by popularity has become a thing of the past. The iconic theory of Web2.0, the “Long Tail Theory,” emerged from this context. The theory was initially used to describe the business and economic models of platforms like Amazon and Netflix. It states that although the demand and sales of individual niche products may not be high, due to their large quantity, their total demand can be significant, occupying a market share comparable to or even larger than that of popular products.
Today, the Long Tail Theory has been widely applied in various fields. Traditional asset management institutions, which were loyal followers of the “80/20 rule,” have also started to shift their focus to “long-tail” investors outside of the high-end market. However, in the current Web3, no ecosystem has truly met the personalized needs of different retail investors and created a market scale through the aggregation of these niche markets. Instead, the user PVP under the “Matthew Effect” has repeatedly pointed to the final outcome of the “80/20” rule, causing retail investors to lose confidence and vitality.
To explore whether the long-tail market can be realized in the Web3 field, we first need to clarify the basic conditions for this effect to occur: extremely low costs for the storage and dissemination of products or resources, a large number of small niche markets and broad regional markets, and a large network of users that can discover and meet their personalized needs. Taking a broad look at the entire Web3, the TON ecosystem is currently the project best positioned to integrate into a long-tail market.
Why is the answer “TON”?
Although both abbreviated as “TON,” the current “TON” (The Open Network) is not exactly the same as the “TON” (Telegram Open Network) initiated by Telegram in 2019. The latter was canceled in 2020 after a series of legal disputes, while the former is the result of continued development and production by the community and other developer teams. Even though “TON” has lost direct connection with Telegram, it can still be considered as the “heir” supported by the Telegram official and its founder Pavel Durov. It is the only public chain officially recognized by Telegram.
As a privacy-focused encrypted communication tool, Telegram’s cultural DNA naturally aligns with cryptocurrencies. Since its inception in 2013, Telegram has been a gathering place for the cryptocurrency community. Today, Telegram has reached 900 million users, spread across Asia, Europe, the Americas, and other regions. It is also the fastest-growing mainstream instant messaging software, with an annual growth rate of 20%. It is expected to surpass the 1 billion user mark this year. Therefore, the unique advantage of being able to reach nearly 1 billion users makes the TON ecosystem stand out compared to other native crypto ecosystems. This massive potential user base makes it difficult for other crypto projects to compete.
In addition to the “numbers game,” another killer feature of TON is the simple and open Web3 ecosystem that can be built using Telegram bots. Telegram bots are applications on the Telegram platform that help users perform various functions such as executing transactions, providing information, or offering gaming services. They do not require installation and provide flexible interactive interfaces, similar to mini-programs in WeChat, with over 360 million users using them monthly. Just as the graphical user interface greatly simplified computer operations, Telegram’s mini-programs allow TON ecosystem users to stay in the communication interface and smoothly interact with various applications within the ecosystem, without the need to navigate multiple webpages and switch back and forth.
The vast and diverse user base naturally has rich demands and interests, providing a potential huge long-tail market for the TON ecosystem. Moreover, the ease of development and integration of Telegram bots allows developers to quickly develop and release various bots with different functions, facilitating the emergence of a long-tail market at a low cost. In addition, the natural advantage of Telegram in community propagation and promotion makes it easy to achieve viral marketing in target audiences and their communities.
Creating breakout products like Notcoin and Catizen
The formula of low entry barriers plus effective social media dissemination equals a breakout product has been proven in Web2. In recent years, there have been phenomena such as the 2022 WeChat mini-game “Sheep Jump” and earlier ones like “Tiao Yi Tiao” and “QQ Farm” in the early days of QQ Space.
In Web3, this formula is still applicable and has already begun to show its potential in the TON ecosystem. The Telegram game project Notcoin reached 35 million active users in just a few months this year, with its gameplay simply involving earning in-game currency by tapping the screen. Pavel Durov praised it in a previous post, stating that it demonstrated the powerful influence of the Telegram/TON ecosystem on application developers. Notcoin’s explosive popularity and its listing on Binance and OKEx further attracted attention to the TON ecosystem.
Notcoin’s success demonstrates that the TON ecosystem not only has the potential to integrate niche markets and create a “long tail” but also has the traffic advantage to create impactful products. Catizen, a cat-themed game that combines concepts such as the metaverse, GameFi, and AI, is another example. As a synthesis game, it maintains a simple and easy-to-use style, but it does not sacrifice gameplay experience like Notcoin.
In terms of incentive mechanisms, Catizen adopts the play-to-airdrop model, aiming to attract players through fun and provide them with additional benefits while playing the game. Since its beta version launched on March 19, 2024, Catizen has quickly become one of the hottest GameFi mini-programs in the Telegram x TON ecosystem. Currently, Catizen’s user base has exceeded 20 million, and within the first week of June, it achieved a user growth of 5 million. Its on-chain user base has also surged to over 1 million, with a peak daily active user count of 3.4 million. In addition, Catizen has consistently topped the ecosystem application rankings in The Open League’s second and third seasons. This game, strongly supported by the TON ecosystem, has the potential to become another phenomenon-level product after Notcoin.
Thanks to its massive user base and unique Web3 ecosystem, combined with the easy development of Telegram bots, user-friendly interfaces, and smooth user experience, TON (The Open Network), which is still in its early stages, has shown its tremendous potential and gained increasingly wide recognition. Pantera Capital has even made a significant investment, the largest in history, betting on its success.
However, the industry’s current focus on products like Notcoin and Catizen, which have tens of millions of users, has overshadowed TON’s potential impact in a more extensive and sustainable global niche market. Based on the aforementioned reasons, the TON ecosystem is undoubtedly becoming a vibrant platform. However, its long-term success still requires time to validate.
