Source: Blockchain Knight
Geoffrey Kendrick, the Head of Foreign Exchange and Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered Bank, predicts that the price of BTC could skyrocket to $100,000 before the U.S. presidential election in November this year.
In an email to The Block, Kendrick detailed the factors driving this prediction and provided a more in-depth outlook on BTC’s price trajectory.
Kendrick stated, “With the U.S. election looming, I expect the price of BTC to reach $100,000, and if Trump wins, BTC’s price could reach $150,000 by the end of the year.”
He pointed out, “The Biden administration recently showed a pragmatic approach in approving the spot ETH ETF, but Biden’s subsequent veto undermined efforts to repeal SAB 121. So, Trump is more favorable than Biden.”
Kendrick also emphasized the potential impact of the U.S. non-farm payroll data to be released tomorrow on BTC’s price.
He noted, “Favorable data could trigger new all-time highs over the weekend, paving the way for BTC to reach $80,000 by the end of June. If the data is ‘friendly,’ I expect BTC’s price to hit a new all-time high over the weekend.”
The analyst reiterated his long-term price forecast, with BTC reaching $150,000 by the end of the year and $200,000 by the end of 2025.
Kendrick stressed, “It is worth noting that by the end of 2024, a price of $150,000 will place BTC’s market value in the $3 trillion club, following yesterday’s NVDA market value hitting $3 trillion.”
Two months ago, Standard Chartered Bank released a research report expressing optimism about the prospects of BTC and Ethereum by the end of 2024 and beyond.
The bank’s analysts forecasted that BTC could reach $150,000, while Ethereum could reach $8,000. The launch of a spot BTC ETF in the U.S. supported these predictions, with a significant inflow of funds into the fund.
Kendrick and Suki Cooper explained, “The rapid inflow of the new spot BTC ETF dominates, with much of the inflow likely coming from sticky pension-type funds.”
This highlights the stability of the BTC investment trend.
Standard Chartered Bank’s bullish valuation of BTC is based on three key analyses.
Firstly, drawing from the reaction of the gold market to the launch of U.S. gold ETFs, the bank expects BTC to rise to $200,000, a 4.3 times increase from pre-ETF launch prices.
Secondly, based on the current price of gold, an analysis suggests that a portfolio optimized with 80% gold and 20% BTC indicates a level of around $190,000 for BTC.
Lastly, linear inference based on the correlation between ETF inflows and BTC prices suggests that if the total ETF inflow is around the bank’s estimated $75 billion midpoint, BTC could reach $250,000.
The bank pointed out that these analyses all indicate that “$200,000 is the ‘correct’ price level for BTC by the end of 2025, and is likely to be the new midpoint of the trading range by then.”
“The research further indicates that if ETF inflows continue rapidly or reserve managers purchase BTC, it is possible for BTC to surge to over $250,000 at some point in 2025.”