Author: Liu Jiaolian
“On Friday, a thundering sound!” Overnight, the US Labor Statistics Bureau released surprisingly high non-farm payroll data, along with slightly higher-than-expected unemployment rate figures. The news was shocking and everyone was surprised. For a detailed breakdown, those who haven’t seen it can click on the link to open the June 7th Jiaolian Insider and see for themselves. Faced with the impact of this data, Bitcoin (BTC) initially experienced a significant short-term volatility, followed by a dive that has now dropped below $70,000, hovering around the $69,000 mark.
Wall Street institutions have adjusted their interest rate cut expectations to November at the end of this year, in response to the data. Looking at the sideways movement of BTC since March, Jiaolian couldn’t help but ponder.
Look at the red box drawn by Jiaolian in the picture. A sideways consolidation channel. From March to November? How many months? 8 months. A remarkable coincidence? What does it remind you of?
Recall Jiaolian’s articles on January 9th, “Bitcoin’s Big Fall and Rise,” and April 14th, “Shelling Positions.” You will see a similar 8-month consolidation period. It looks like the image below:
This image shows a consolidation period after the approval of the Gold ETF listing, lasting over 8 months. We all know that when the consolidation finally breaks upward, Gold embarked on a magnificent 5-year bull market.
However, in yesterday’s Jiaolian Insider on June 7th, the Bitfinex analyst team mentioned that this Bitcoin bull market is set to firmly turn bearish and come to an abrupt end by the end of this year.
This has led to a huge divergence: by the end of 2024, when the Federal Reserve changes course and begins to tighten, will Bitcoin in 2025 soar to new heights, starting a raging bull market, or will it plummet into a bearish trend and enter a long bearish period?
Jiaolian feels that Bitfinex’s viewpoint lacks logical coherence. This has been dissected in the Insider article and will not be reiterated.
The bull market of 2025 and the bear market of 2026 follow a power-law standard model and the rhythm of the 4-year halving cycle. However, in each cycle, there are always critics who argue that this is too mechanical.
In fact, this is a major puzzle related to the unusual halving cycle this time around, the debate of 2024: will the rally fade away, or will it be a super cycle?
After all, in April 2024, the “Gold Halving” of Bitcoin significantly surpassed the hardness of gold, making it the hardest known asset on Earth.
The $70,000 in March was a result of the approval of the US Spot ETF in early January. The supply shortage effect brought about by the halving in April may not have been fully reflected yet.
In the past, every halving has led the bull market to its peak in about 1.5 years, followed by a precise deleveraging period of about a year to completely shake out the market.
Precisely like a clock. Tick-tock.
Every time, there are attempts to prove that Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle is merely a macro coincidence, not the effect of halving. However, every attempt to disrupt the internal clock and cycle rhythm of Bitcoin has failed.
The bull market at the end of 2020 to early 2021 crushed countless short positions. The eternal bull market of Three Arrows Capital at the beginning of 2021 is now a distant memory. In early summer 2022, Jiaolian believed that BTC could rally against the Fed’s balance sheet reduction, but it wasn’t until 2023 that it started to materialize, by which time the market had already changed drastically.
BTC has stubbornly bottomed out in the 1.5 years before halving, peaks in the 1.5 years after halving, with 3 years of upward movement and 1 year of downward movement, following a 4-year cycle. Will this time, its clock-like precise rhythm, be broken?