The latest research from Matrixport Institute shows that recent focus includes:
BTC remains the best-performing asset of the year, far exceeding the Nasdaq.
The U.S. presidential election remains a positive factor for BTC, with current data indicating a high chance of Trump winning.
The rate cut benefits for this year may be difficult to realize, as BTC volatility remains at a low level.
BTC is the best-performing asset of the year, far surpassing the Nasdaq.
Although BTC is currently in a consolidation phase for the summer, it continues to be the top-performing asset so far this year. The return on BTC since the beginning of the year is far greater than that of the Nasdaq (+ 22%) and the S&P 500 (+ 16%). Based on the current market conditions, many cryptocurrency participants are inclined to invest in tokens with high yields, waiting for the right time to enter the BTC market.
The U.S. presidential election remains a positive factor for BTC, with current data indicating a high chance of Trump winning.
Presidential election years are usually bullish for stocks and BTC. Last year, Matrix on Target presented simulations of BTC, analyzing its average performance during the U.S. presidential elections of 2012, 2016, and 2020. In the July of the previous three election years, Bitcoin’s return rate was close to 36%. Interestingly, BTC has risen by 39% so far this year, aligning with the simulated performance in election years.
The rate cut benefits may be challenging to realize this year, as volatility in BTC remains relatively low.
In the upcoming FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, the committee may express willingness to start a rate-cut cycle in September at the meeting on July 31. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell may reiterate this view at the Jackson Hole Symposium on August 23, with the Fed possibly cutting rates on September 18 or December 18. The current inclination is that the Fed may cut rates once this year in September or December; otherwise, the rate cut may not happen.
The expected benefits from the rate cut may be challenging to realize this year, keeping volatility at a relatively low level. Despite frequent sharp consolidations in previous bull markets, BTC has not experienced a significant fluctuation of 20% in the last 30 days. Effective communication from the Federal Reserve has successfully prevented further declines in BTC.
Multiple transfers of Mt. Gox tokens have sparked market fear of “sell-off”.
Mt. Gox has initiated the repayment process and recent suspicious transfers of tokens have caused market fears of sell-offs. Additionally, asset transfers by the German government have escalated concerns: on-chain data shows that the German government recently transferred over $195 million worth of Bitcoin to various cryptocurrency exchanges. According to Arkham Information, on July 4, the US government wallet address (starting with 349c6) transferred 237 BTC to an address starting with bc1qvc, equivalent to $13.67 million. The combination of “market selling” information has led to sharp short-term fluctuations in the price of BTC.
While monetary policy and the U.S. presidential election are seen as positive factors, investing in options, holding a small amount of risky assets, and investing in bonds-related tokens to earn high returns are considered prudent strategies.
The above views are from Matrix on Target,
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Disclaimer: Markets involve risks, and investments should be made carefully. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can carry significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of individual circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.