Author: NingNing
Source: X, @0xNing0x
The lackluster performance of $ZK and $ZRO has challenged the effectiveness of the commonly used valuation methods, such as comparative valuation and VC post-investment valuation, for new coins in the cryptocurrency market. We can no longer ignore the weight of market sentiment and community opinion in the pricing of new coins.
Currently, Blast is priced at $2.88 in the Aevo pre-trading market. This price has already factored in the risks associated with the cryptocurrency market, L2 track risks, and market FUD sentiment. However, it has not yet considered community opinion.
Community opinion depends on the fairness of airdrop distribution and the consistency of incentives. We need to patiently wait for Blast to announce its airdrop rules in the near future. Considering that Blast adopts a point-based airdrop system, which is more transparent and predictable compared to the interactive transaction-based airdrop system of Zksync and Layerzero, it is expected that community opinion will not be as extremely negative as the previous two. Currently, the pre-trading price of $Blast implies a fully diluted valuation of $2.88 billion, which is almost on par with $ZK. From the fundamental data of Rollup (daily number of transactions published to L1, average size of transactions published to L1, and average non-sequential packing time interval), it can be seen that $Blast and $ZK are indeed on the same level.
Based on the above analysis, the opening price of $Blast is likely to be within the range of $3±10%. The key factor that will determine the overall trend of the price after the opening is whether the airdrop rules can gain community recognition.