Source: xPanse World
The trading in June is expected to be quite “bloody.” The data at 2 a.m. today did not sing a bearish tune; the data was positive. Additionally, as today is the 613 delivery day, the price of BTC surged from a low of $66,051 to $69,999, a 6% increase. Subsequently, it dropped back to $67,500.
zkSync faced community backlash due to hoarding a large amount of “rat warehouses,” leading to a delay in the launch. A nearly 60% drop in user addresses by zkSync caused an uproar in the community, prompting zkSync to postpone the launch, which could put significant pressure on the ZK listing. The creation of numerous addresses by the project team to build rat warehouses is a double-edged sword. The question of whether to sell or not has become the most important concern for zkSync traders.
If selling occurs, there will be significant selling pressure on the market. Since the rat warehouses are too concentrated, airdrops do not constitute diversified addresses, amplifying the desire to sell, leading to significant panic among traders on the market after the launch.
If no selling occurs, it will result in the project team controlling the market, causing the actual controllers of many addresses to act independently. Once a large amount of chips is controlled and not flowing into the market, trading volume will decrease, resulting in stable increases in a low liquidity situation. However, even after the price rises, it may still cause panic among traders.
What is the terminal rate?
The Terminal Rate refers to the highest (or lowest) level of interest rates that the Federal Reserve expects to reach in a cycle of rate hikes or cuts. This rate level signifies that the Federal Reserve believes it has reached an appropriate monetary policy stance for the economic situation and signals the end of the rate hike or cut cycle.
The determination of the terminal rate is based on the Federal Reserve’s comprehensive assessment of the economic situation, including several key factors:
– Inflation: One of the Federal Reserve’s main goals is to maintain price stability, around a 2% inflation rate. If the inflation rate is too high, the Federal Reserve may raise rates to a terminal rate to curb inflation; conversely, if the inflation rate is too low, the terminal rate may be lower.
– Economic growth: The rate of economic growth also affects the setting of the terminal rate. Strong economic growth may require higher rates to prevent overheating, while weak economic growth may require lower rates to stimulate economic activity.
– Employment situation: The Federal Reserve also monitors the labor market. High employment and low unemployment rates are usually accompanied by higher rates, while high unemployment rates may require lower rates to support employment.
– Global economic environment: Global economic uncertainty and the monetary policies of other major economies also influence the Federal Reserve’s decisions on the terminal rate.
The main reason for the recent market decline is several positive data points that have temporarily dampened expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
Due to previous remarks by Powell that “if the unemployment rate hits 4%, we will consider cutting rates,” but in reality, the rate has not exceeded 4% for nearly a year. The recent rate of 4% is not significantly higher than expected, and the Federal Reserve has not given much consideration to a rate cut in the current environment.
Furthermore, the Democratic Party has expressed a desire to urge the Federal Reserve to cut rates as soon as possible, but this news has revealed that the Federal Reserve’s attitude towards cutting rates in the short term is not high.
When will the rate cut happen?
Currently, players in the industry are all focused on the issue of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, as a rate cut means that economic development is moving in a positive direction.
After last week’s data release, speculation about a rate cut in the market fizzled out because all data remained stable without significant adjustments or improvements.
Therefore, the timing of when the rate cut will happen has become even more important.
Currently, the terminal rate is shown in the data for September 18th. As of now, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 48.3%, higher than the probability of keeping the rate between 525-550 basis points. This is currently the most crucial turning point.
Therefore, in terms of the rate cut, I believe the probability of a rate cut in September is the highest.
Will June be a “bloody battle”?
Firstly, the market fluctuations in June may be significant, with the main force in the futures market showing a strong bullish sentiment in the options market. The most significant options position currently falls on the June 28th exercise day, with a maximum pain point of $55,000.
The nominal amount of the options position for June 28th is $6.564 billion, with 65,800 bullish options worth $4.54 billion. This accounts for 67% of the total nominal amount, indicating a strong bullish sentiment for the latter part of June, despite some hawkish views and comments that may arise. Currently, the sentiment in the capital market is optimistic.
The trading in June is expected to be quite “bloody.” The data at 2 a.m. today did not sing a bearish tune; the data was positive. Additionally, as today is the 613 delivery day, the price of BTC surged from a low of $66,051 to $69,999, a 6% increase. Subsequently, it dropped back to $67,500.
Now that the weather is too hot, everyone should take care and rest. Finally, the market in June will experience significant fluctuations, presenting a good opportunity for friends who enjoy short-term trading.