Author: Bugsbunny Source: X,@octopusycc
How to Find Tokens Currently at VC “Cost Price” from the Perspective of “Market Cap – Valuation”?
Boldly provide everyone with a unique bottom-fishing reference from the “Market Cap – Valuation” perspective that may be the only one on Twitter.
1. The Meaning of “Market Cap is 1-2 Times Valuation”
If VCs cannot bring in returns of more than 2 times, they would rather directly buy BTC (fun fact: BTC has seen a rebound of nearly 80% this year).
When the token price is at 1-2 times valuation, the project team is essentially buying back tokens from VCs.
(The biggest selling pressure of altcoins is unlocked tokens) at this point, there is nothing left to sell, and market makers can inject liquidity.
2. Why Not Look at Seed Round Valuation?
Seed round projects where VCs invest in 50 projects may only have one successful project, and they need to make money from it.
Also, seed round valuations and unlock dates are chaotic and unpredictable.
3. Why Look at Market Cap Instead of FDV?
Most blockchain projects struggle to operate for more than 2 years, while FDV often starts at 5 years.
If calculated based on FDV, the significance of this table would be poor.
4. How to Use This Guide?
Green indicates token prices within 1-2 times valuation;
Blue indicates token prices within 2-3 times valuation;
Unfilled tokens have prices above three times valuation;
Red indicates token prices below valuation;
In theory, market makers need to maintain their token prices within the 1-3 times valuation range, as there is no further room to fall (this is not the only measure but an important one to consider).
Therefore, maintaining tokens with strong prices like those at 2 times valuation or above (marked in blue or unmarked) means market makers are of higher quality.
5. Some Projects Do Not Have Valuations, How Were Valuations Obtained?
Data sources include @CoinMarketCap, @RootDataLabs, token unlocks. Thanks to these three service providers for their data support.
Some projects do not have PR valuations, so estimates were made, please be understanding.
6. Note:
Pay extra attention to the highlighted parts, which are tokens unlocking in May and June, as they may bring additional selling pressure to the market.