Big fluctuations ahead how do institutions view the future market conditions

Original | Odaily Planet Daily
Author | Nan Zhi


After briefly touching a high of $72,000 last Friday (June 7), the overall market has once again entered a round of major collapse. Tonight, the CPI and the Fed interest rate decision will be announced, and a new round of large fluctuations is about to come.
How do various institutions and research institutes view the future market? Odaily Planet Daily summarizes their main views in this article since June 7.
Bullish view: Bull market continues
10x: If BTC breaks through $72,000, it will continue to reach new highs, bullish on BTC/ETH exchange rate
In its latest market analysis report, 10x Research stated that tonight’s dual macro events, CPI and FOMC, seem difficult to predict after last week’s U.S. job data exceeded expectations, causing most Wall Street banks to delay their first rate cut expectations to September or later. Although the rate-sensitive Nasdaq continues to hit new highs, Bitcoin has dropped from $71,000 to $67,000. If the Bitcoin price rises above $72,000 ($71,946), it may break new highs. However, overallocation of Ethereum (leverage) futures may have a negative impact on Bitcoin, and Bitcoin is more favored than Ethereum (BTC fell 5% last week, ETH fell 9%).
Comments from U.S. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler on the approval of the Ethereum ETF S-1 seem more likely to start unwinding leveraged long positions than repricing Wall Street’s rate expectations. Enthusiasm around the Ethereum ETF has significantly decreased, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to decline.
Kimchi premium rebounding, representing increased demand in South Korea
Recently, the South Korean Bitcoin “Kimchi premium” dropped to below 1% after nearing 10% in mid-April, and the premium is now rebounding. CryptoQuant data shows that after hitting a low of 0.62% on June 4 (when global prices were almost the same), the premium rose to 3.42% as of June 6. Analysis indicates that this usually indicates increased demand in South Korea, which may push up the price of Bitcoin in the short term.
Additionally, archived data from CoinMarketCap on June 9 shows that the global trading price of Bitcoin is $69,288, while on Upbit, the price of Bitcoin is $71,130, a 2.658% premium. Bithumb, Coinone, and Korbit also experienced similar premiums. The premium for Ethereum is also 2.69%, with a global price of $3,679 and a price of $3,778 on Upbit and other platforms. (Bitcoin.com)
BTC shifting from CEX to DEX signifies long-term bullishness
Glassnode data shows that due to investors waiting for the bull market to rise, the user balances of Bitcoin and Ethereum on centralized exchanges have dropped significantly, with the value of Bitcoin falling to less than 2.3 million coins (about $158 billion) and Ethereum’s value falling to less than 16 million coins (about $58 billion). The user balances of these two major cryptocurrencies have dropped to the lowest level in four years, which analysts interpret as a signal of future bullishness. As the decline in exchange balances indicates increasing confidence in the long-term potential of these digital assets, investors choose to withdraw their cryptocurrencies from the trading halls and put them into deep freeze. (Bitcoinist)
Bitfinex: Euro rate cut bullish for BTC
On June 7, Bitfinex analysts stated that due to declining interest in risk assets, BTC may fall below the $70,000 mark this week (already realized). However, the previous Euro rate cut may increase Bitcoin’s liquidity, as the rate cut could weaken the Euro, potentially leading to increased demand for alternative assets such as Bitcoin. The liquidity increase from loose monetary policies may also support risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. (Cointelegraph)
Bitfinex: BTC to rise above $120,000 in this cycle
Analysts from the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex predict that the current Bitcoin bull market cycle may peak in the fourth quarter of 2024. The analysts state that historical data shows that Bitcoin usually reaches an all-time high (ATH) several months after a halving event, so they forecast that the market top may occur around the fourth quarter of 2024. The Bitfinex analysts predict that in this current cycle, based on on-chain indicators and historical patterns, Bitcoin is expected to reach a peak of at least $120,000 in this cycle. (TheBlock)
QCP Capital: BTC will continue to rise
Analysts from the cryptocurrency trading company QCP Capital stated that today’s release of the U.S. jobless claims report and next week’s release of the CPI could be catalysts for Bitcoin to reach new highs. Additionally, with the possibility of a rate cut, Bitcoin may further rise. The analysts also expect ETH to continue to lag behind in the short term, and noted that U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler stated in a CNBC interview yesterday that the approval of the spot Ethereum ETF S-1 “will take some time.” (TheBlock)
Neutral view: Not ruling out the possibility of sideways movement
ETF inflows are not necessarily bullish bets
Although the inflow of the U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETF reached a historic high, the price of Bitcoin spot continued to fluctuate within a narrow range. ETF inflows seem to be part of non-directional cash and arbitrage strategies, and do not necessarily represent a complete bullish bet. Anonymous market observer CMS Holdings stated: “Physical buying of ETFs and selling of CME futures to reduce some major market basis, allowing entities to make net profits, is also why ETF inflows are high but spot prices have not changed significantly.” This strategy is commonly known as cash arbitrage, aimed at profiting from the premium of futures markets relative to spot markets. (Coindesk)
Bitcoin’s third quarter backtesting data performance is mediocre
According to on-chain analyst Ali’s post on the X platform, historically, Bitcoin generally performs poorly in the third quarter, with an average return rate of only 6.49% and a median return rate of -2.57%.
BTC has strong support at $67,350
According to on-chain analyst Ali’s post on the X platform, Bitcoin is anchored in a strong support area between $67,350 and $69,380, where 1.97 million addresses hold 964,000 coins, maintaining this level is crucial for Bitcoin to maintain its upward momentum.
Bearish view: Market remains pessimistic
Cryptoquant: ETH will continue to decline in the short term
Cryptoquant analyst ShayanBTC stated that the Ethereum price may continue to decline in the short term unless the market situation improves. The current Ethereum price is struggling to break through $4,000, and the buy-to-sell ratio in the futures market (7-day moving average) shows that sellers have the upper hand. The ratio has recently failed to rise above 1 and has sharply declined, indicating that most futures traders are selling Ethereum either for speculation or to realize profits. This trend is a bearish signal, and if it continues, the current downward retracement may persist.
QCP Capital: Buy on dips
In its market analysis on June 8, QCP Capital stated that the unexpected outperformance of non-farm data and the rise in unemployment rate are enough to trigger risk aversion before the release of U.S. inflation data and FOMC next Wednesday.
Additionally, Roaring Kitty’s live stream attracted nearly a million viewers, during which GME stock prices plummeted. Shitcoins and meme coins simultaneously declined, with a market cap evaporating over $40 billion, which may not be a coincidence.
There is bullish fund flow in this decline, including sellers of aggressive put options and buyers of bullish spreads, especially in BTC.
QCP Capital believes that this decline is a good opportunity to buy on dips, as the market will increasingly digest the impact of the Fed’s expected rate cut at least once from now. As other countries around the world continue to cut rates, the U.S. will find it difficult to ignore this.