Last Friday (14 MAR), the economic data in the United States showed signs of weakness. The New York Fed Manufacturing Index recorded a significant decline, falling to -20.9 compared to the expected -7. Additionally, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index also experienced a slight decrease. In the stock market, risk reallocation and large-scale options expiration led to a dominant Delta hedge, causing a decline of -0.5% to -1% with technology stocks leading the way. This week, the focus will be on the FOMC meeting, where it is expected that Chairman Powell will address the recent higher-than-expected inflation and the accommodative monetary situation. Furthermore, several central banks, including those of Japan, the UK, and Australia, will announce their monetary policy decisions, with a general expectation that they will maintain a dovish stance. The Bank of Japan may also end its negative interest rate policy at the meeting.
The cryptocurrency market had a tumultuous weekend. The price of BTC briefly dropped to near the $65,000 level before gradually recovering to around $68,000. It closed today at $68,196.83, marking a 4.29% increase. ETH, on the other hand, reported a price of $3,626, showing a 4.84% increase. In terms of options, the implied volatility decreased from its peak as prices rebounded, with an overall level of around 75%. The Vol Skew level was relatively low, indicating a steep term structure. In terms of trading activity, the downward price fluctuation prompted traders to buy back BTC 22 MAR 24-64000-P and 29 MAR 24-70000-P, releasing a significant amount of short positions’ margin. Additionally, it can be observed from the chart that ETH’s recent performance has been slightly weaker compared to BTC. This has led to the emergence of a popular triangle spread strategy, represented by SELL ETH-26 APR 24-4500-C vs BUY ETH-29 MAR 24-3400-C, as traders bet on a regression in short-term correlation.
According to data from Deribit, the distribution of ETH trading is shown in the charts. In terms of Block Trade, Deribit provides information on recent transactions. For real-time cryptocurrency news, you can search for SignalPlus in the Plugin Store of ChatGPT 4.0. To receive our updates instantly, you can follow our Twitter account @SignalPlus_Web3 or join our WeChat group (add assistant WeChat: xdengalin), Telegram group, and Discord community to interact and communicate with more friends.
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