Original | Odaily Planet Daily
Author | Nan Zhi
At the beginning of 2021, DOGE sparked the first wave of the “animal market” meme craze, and the market value of DOGE itself once reached 88.79 billion US dollars. At that time, DOGE successfully broke through the circle and spread widely on various social media platforms, bringing in a large number of new investors in related currencies.
On May 8th of that year, DOGE reached its highest point of 0.74 USDT. The overheated market accumulated a large number of leveraged positions. On May 12th, Bitcoin fell by 12.5%, followed by the well-known 519 crash, with a daily volatility of 34.8% and a 14.44% drop.
The two rounds of SHIB, the “second-generation meme leader”, occurred in May and the end of October 2021, which were close to the two peak times in May and November. However, the circle-breaking effect was not as strong as DOGE.
Recently, meme tokens led by PEPE have occupied the list of exchange gains. WIF has also landed on Robinhood and Binance. Does this indicate the beginning of a circle-breaking market that will soon reach its peak? Odaily Planet Daily will review social media data and meme token trends, including DOGE, SHIB, PEPE, and WIF, to explore whether there is any correlation and prediction between them.
Circle-breaking dissemination? Not yet started
Let’s start with the domestic social media platforms.
Weibo: In 2021, a large number of official accounts and individuals on Weibo promoted Web3 industry content. Although a large number of users have migrated to platform X, the content related to meme coins can still be updated in real time and have a certain level of dissemination. The search results for PEPE are closely related to cryptocurrency, while there is less content related to WIF, and most of the content is related to “WiFi.”
Xiaohongshu (Little Red Book): The situation on this platform is similar to Weibo. The association with PEPE is very high, but most of the posts are not recent and have low likes, indicating that it has not yet triggered FOMO and widespread attention from users outside the circle. WIF also has scattered related content, with uneven distribution of posting time, and most of them are related to the term “WiFi.”
Jike: The concentration of Web3 content on this platform is not inferior to Weibo and Xiaohongshu, but it is mainly used for official project promotion and professional communication among practitioners. Currently, there are only a few posts discussing the price increase of PEPE, and no one mentions WIF.
Review of social media search data
Based on the search data from “Baidu Index” and “Google Trends,” let’s review the trends of DOGE and SHIB. “Baidu Index” shows the absolute index, displaying the search volume level during a specific period, while “Google Trends” shows the relative trend within a specific period, with a maximum value of 100.
The price of DOGE and social media search data are as follows. From the Google data, it can be seen that from January to May, the global attention to DOGE is similar, while domestic attention is more focused on the last two waves of market trends. It can also be clearly seen that once there is a significantly higher-than-average hot search on a certain day, it means that the short-term market is peaking.
The price of SHIB and social media search data are as follows. The pattern is similar to DOGE, and extreme hot searches indicate the market’s peak. However, it can be seen that the domestic attention is mainly driven by the “animal market” trend caused by DOGE in May, and the second round of domestic attention has significantly decreased.
The price of PEPE in the past month and social media search data are as follows. Due to official settings, Google Trends cannot be queried across months, but a query on the 7th day shows that the popularity has not significantly changed compared to the end of February. However, there have been significant fluctuations deviating from the average in China, but the degree is much lower than the hundredfold fluctuations seen in DOGE and SHIB.
The price of WIF in the past month and social media search data are as follows. There is no significant change in domestic attention to WIF, but it is worth noting that the popularity started to soar on March 5th at 18:00 when Binance announced the listing of WIF spot, similar to the deviation situation of PEPE.
Conclusion
In summary, the extreme hot searches for meme tokens often indicate the peak of a market trend. Currently, both PEPE and WIF have shown significant deviations, indicating the accumulation of risks, but the degree is much lower than that of DOGE and SHIB in previous years. There is no obvious circle-breaking situation occurring, indicating that there may still be some potential.