On October 16th, Bitcoin broke through the previous high of the “8.18” crash, starting a new round of upward cycle. It rose from 27,000 USDT to a peak of 44,000 USDT, with a cumulative increase of over 60%.
At the same time, a mysterious address on the blockchain (0x1dbbbc3fdb2c4fabd28fd9b84ed99ceb84bfbec5) started acquiring 1.81 billion USDT from Tether on October 20th and transferred it to compliant exchanges such as Kraken, Coinbase, and OKX. The timing of these transactions perfectly aligned with the rise in the market, leading it to be considered one of the potential “engines” behind the current bull market.
Now, let’s delve into the specific purchasing patterns and strategies of this mysterious address and explore the underlying logic and potential institution behind it using analysis tools such as OKLink and Arkham.
50 days, 1.76 billion USDT
Firstly, according to the OKLink blockchain explorer data, the initial source of funds for this address was 0.497 ETH transferred from a Kraken deposit address on October 20, 2023, at 23:28:23.
Subsequently, according to OKLink data, 22 minutes after receiving this initial transaction, the address received its first 20 USDT from the Tether USDT minting contract. This small amount of minting was likely a test to ensure the address was functional for future USDT transfers.
From October 20th to December 9th, this mysterious address accumulated a total of 1.76 billion USDT from Tether in 38 separate transfers, with a total of 298 transfers to centralized exchanges such as Kraken, Coinbase, OKX, and Huobi. Among these exchanges, Kraken had the highest number of direct transactions (51), followed by OKX (25) and Huobi (2), according to OKLink’s “Direct Trading Entity Ranking.”
Considering the additional data from Arkham, Coinbase received the highest amount of deposits from this mysterious address:
– Approximately 1.19 billion USDT, accounting for nearly 70% of the total deposits
– Kraken received approximately 377 million USDT, accounting for around 20%
– OKX received approximately 101 million USDT, accounting for about 6%
Analyzing transaction patterns using OKLink and Arkham
Next, let’s analyze the hidden information behind the transaction data of this address using OKLink and Arkham.
Aligned with North American time zones and focused on weekdays
According to OKLink’s “24-hour Address Transaction Statistics,” the trading activity of this mysterious address is concentrated between 21:00 and 5:00 Beijing time, with the most concentrated period being between 22:00 and 1:00. This aligns perfectly with the trading hours of the U.S. stock market, which operates from 22:30 to 5:00 Beijing time during the period from early November to early March (taking into account daylight saving time).
From this perspective, it is highly likely that this address belongs to a trading institution that follows the trading hours of the North American market.
Additionally, when analyzing the transaction dates, it can be observed that all the transactions occurred during weekdays from Monday to Friday, supporting the hypothesis that this address belongs to an institution that follows the workweek schedule. Out of a total of 347 transactions, only 21 occurred on Saturdays and Sundays, while 326 occurred from Monday to Friday (transactions on weekends may also be due to time differences between Friday evening and Monday morning).
Primarily buying BTC during the same period
Between October 20th and December 9th, this address transferred a total of 1.76 billion USDT to exchanges, coinciding with the market’s rise. During the same period, the price of BTC increased from 27,000 USDT to a peak of 44,000 USDT.
Whenever this mysterious address frequently transferred USDT to exchanges, BTC experienced significant price increases in the following days. For example:
– On November 7th and 8th, the address transferred a total of 30 USDT to exchanges, and BTC continued to rise for four consecutive days, from 35,000 USDT to 37,300 USDT.
– From November 28th to December 1st, the address transferred a total of 55 USDT to exchanges, and BTC continued to rise for five consecutive days, from 37,700 USDT to 44,000 USDT.
However, during the same periods, ETH showed relative weakness, with the ETH/BTC exchange rate fluctuating within a range of 0.051-0.055.
Overall, the actions of this mysterious address perfectly align with the market’s rise and indicate that it is one of the main players in the spot market of this bull market. Whenever it transfers funds to exchanges, the market price rises, and when it remains inactive, the price oscillates or declines.
Considering that the initial source of gas funds for this address was Kraken and its counterpart exchanges are Coinbase, OKX, and Kraken, it can be determined that this address belongs to a traditional institution headquartered in North America, with offices in locations such as Hong Kong.
Another significant movement on December 28th
It is worth noting that on December 28th, after a 20-day period of inactivity, this mysterious address finally made another move, acquiring 50 million USDT from Tether. The counterpart exchanges for these transactions were Kraken, Bitgo, and Coinbase.
In detail:
– Kraken received three transfers totaling 13 million USDT.
– Bitgo received three transfers totaling 10 million USDT.
– Coinbase received three transfers totaling 27 million USDT.
The AI intelligent label assigned to this mysterious address by Arkham is “Cumberland DRW”. But who is Cumberland DRW?
Cumberland DRW is a subsidiary of DRW Trading Group, a derivatives trading company based in Chicago. It has offices in Chicago, London, Singapore, and Hong Kong, which matches the information points of “North American trading hours” and “counterpart exchanges with OKX and Huobi.” Cumberland DRW specializes in derivatives trading, including futures, options, and other derivatives. It is also very active in cryptocurrency trading, providing trading, research, and custody services to institutional clients. According to Cumberland DRW’s website, the company manages approximately $10 billion in assets in 2022.
Regardless of who is behind this mysterious address, the significant $1.81 billion investment reveals an important signal, especially considering the approaching launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs. The subsequent actions of this address undoubtedly carry significant implications.