Over the past week, market volatility has intensified rapidly. Will this volatile trend continue? Recently, weak economic data from the United States has heightened expectations of interest rate cuts. According to traders’ forecasts, the likelihood of a rate cut in the U.S. this month is low, and the launch of the Ethereum spot ETF remains uncertain. Additionally, sell-off expectations from MtGox and various central banks have contributed to Bitcoin’s fluctuation this week, which saw an initial rise followed by a sharp decline today after breaching $63,000. Only a few mainstream coins outperformed the market, with altcoins showing weaker performance compared to value coins.
Macro Environment
The recently released minutes from the June Federal Reserve meeting reiterated officials’ cautious stance. The minutes indicated a consensus that more data is needed to confirm confidence in starting rate cuts, with most agreeing that the U.S. economy is cooling. The “New Fed Communications” on X also suggested Fed officials are in no rush to cut rates, with the wait-and-see approach generally satisfactory. According to current FedWatch data, most traders are betting that there will be no rate cut at the end of this month.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has maintained an ambiguous stance on a rate cut in September, emphasizing that employment data is his primary concern.
Due to the impact of the MtGox incident and expectations of central bank sell-offs, Bitcoin (BTC) prices have remained under pressure this week, leading the market to weaken. On July 4th, the Ethereum spot ETF failed to materialize as expected last week, exacerbating market speculation. As a result, Bitcoin’s fear index shifted from greed to a neutral range.
Thursday’s downturn was primarily driven by whales. As shared by dZaheer in a tweet, a whale sold $180 million worth of Bitcoin in three minutes, possibly triggering a chain reaction of sell-offs that day.
Bitcoin’s recent performance has been relatively weak compared to the S&P 500 and gold. Considering the potential for sentiment reversal after substantial sell-offs from MtGox, it may present a significant buying opportunity in the short term.
Premium Tracks
1) Ton Sector
Profit Assurance:
The Total Value Locked (TVL) across the entire Ton ecosystem has grown rapidly since March this year, increasing more than sixfold in just four months. Fees on Telegram’s advertising platform will be settled exclusively in TON tokens. This move significantly empowers Ton by effectively integrating Telegram’s nine hundred million users into its ecosystem through ad revenue continuously repurchasing TON.
Specific Tokens:
Notcoin: Notcoin, a click-to-earn game, is the most popular Web3 application in the Telegram Apps Center and currently the most prominent project in the Ton ecosystem, with user numbers surpassing 40 million in a few months.
Catizen: Catizen is the largest gaming application platform in the Telegram ecosystem, with over 20 million total users, more than 500,000 paying users, and over 1.25 million on-chain users.
Uxlink: Uxlink is the largest social infrastructure project in the Telegram ecosystem, rapidly proliferating through acquaintance-based social networking on Telegram. Publicly disclosed registration data has already exceeded 10 million users, establishing itself as a social infrastructure with over ten million users in the SocialFi sector.
2) Tron Blockchain
Reliable Returns:
Tron (TRX) boasts industry-leading user activity, ranking second globally in terms of TVL and total market value of stablecoins on-chain, handling transactions worth over $12 trillion.
On July 1st, Tron TRX recorded over 7.49 million transactions, marking a new high for the year. Over the past 30 days, Tron TRX has seen an average daily transaction volume of over 6.78 million, a 6.6% increase month-over-month. In the first half of the year, Tron TRX’s protocol income reached $245 million, far surpassing Ethereum.
Bottom-Fishing Reasons:
Tron remains one of the most stable tokens in this bull market cycle, with a success rate far exceeding other tokens. Given its lower market visibility currently, it presents a higher probability of success. Positioning in TRX during bearish market sentiments is a strategic consideration.
User Focus
1) Twitter Popular Tokens
$ZK
In its 3.0 roadmap, ZKsync introduces an “elastic chain” architecture, transitioning ZKsync from a single ZK-Rollup to a network of multiple ZK chains. Originally proposed as the “bridgeless superchain” in 2022, ZKsync claims this scheme achieves native, trustless, and low-cost interoperability between ZK chains.
Elastic Chain is a viable solution in the current L1, L2 environment, where traditional protocols typically expand support networks with increasing chain additions. Through Elastic Chain, traditional protocols can directly connect to new chains and projects joining the network, thus saving development and promotional resources.
$JUP
Jupiter, based on Solana, is a DEX aggregator designed to offer liquidity for traders seeking optimal prices and minimal slippage. Initially envisioned as an exchange engine, the protocol has evolved to include various products such as Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA), limit orders, and perpetual trading to meet diverse user needs.
On the X platform, Jupiter announced that voting on any JUP DAO proposal over the past three months qualifies for ASR proportional to the JUP staked and voting activities. The total pool includes 50 million JUP, 7.5 billion WEN, 7.5 million ZEUS, 7.5 million UPT, and 750,000 SHARK.
$MANTRA (OM)
MANTRA is a high-quality Layer 1 blockchain designed for Real World Assets (RWA), aiming to bring global finance onto the blockchain. As a permissionless chain, it complies with and enforces real-world regulatory requirements. By offering advanced technical modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability, developers and institutions can easily engage in the evolving realm of tokenized RWAs.
Today, MANTRA announced a significant partnership with MAG, a leading real estate developer in the UAE, to tokenize MAG’s $5 billion real estate portfolio. With a total real estate portfolio exceeding $50 billion, this collaboration aims to revolutionize real estate investment through blockchain technology.
2) Popular DApps
World of Dypians is a metaverse sandbox and virtual game created by Dypius, where players can explore endless maps and engage in various activities such as scavenging for rewards or purchasing items using cryptocurrencies. This virtual world offers unique opportunities for adventure, showcasing interactive and growth experiences in an immersive digital environment. DYP serves as the foundational token in this ecosystem, supporting in-game transactions, rewards, and other operations. You can facilitate cross-chain bridging with DYP, enabling token transfers between different public chains and maximizing assets through Dypius Earn products.