Author: SleepingRain Source: X, @0xSleepinRain
In this month’s content, after adding enough, this time I want to try the effect of subtraction. I will only talk about my thoughts on future market trends and some specific events (catalysts).
This cycle seems to be one where only memecoin gamblers can make money. $WIF is okay, the price fluctuations of $PEPE are quite significant, but very few people actually profit from it. There are also some fundamental coins that have performed well, but they are few, such as $PENDLE. If we were to choose the annual buzzword, PVP would definitely be one of them.
So, how should we proceed?
Firstly, here are some of my personal thoughts:
1. Fundamentals and Community
Are fundamentals important? I think they are crucial.
I believe that current fundamentals should refer to the ability to “attract market attention.” Fundamentals are closely related to indicators such as project data, chips, community stickiness, marketing/KOL statements, narratives/catalysts, and whether they can meet the core needs of the market. It is essential to take a more comprehensive look at an asset.
For example, $PENDLE. I personally believe that Pendle excels in these areas. In terms of fundamentals and narrative relevance, the initial rise was because Pendle aligned with the LSD narrative, and this year Pendle has deeply engaged in the LRT narrative, driving the price to continue rising. This alignment with the narrative keeps Pendle at the forefront of market attention. In other words, when people discuss or intend to buy, they will think of Pendle.
I have also participated in Pendle’s community, and Pendle has done well in community stickiness and product education. For example, the @PendleIntern account does a great job, allowing users genuinely interested in Pendle products to learn some strategies through this account and develop plans that better suit their financial situation.
I won’t talk much about marketing; there are many introductions to Pendle on Twitter that you can search for. In a nutshell, these marketing materials can be summarized as: fewer blind recommendations, mostly based on logic, data, and product short articles, threads, and prints.
When dealing with most assets, we need to refer to these indicators.
2. Information Transmission
It is crucial to understand at which layer of information transmission you are.
3. Market Sentiment
Learn to observe market sentiment. A specific method is to delve into the community, observe community members/community KOLs’ statements, and check out those intelligent investors’ statements on market sentiment highs/lows on Twitter.
You can establish your information flow to observe market sentiment at key times.
Looking back at the market sentiment in early May, does it feel familiar?
Quick Tip: You can check out TikTok.
Also, remember to observe your own emotional ups and downs.
4. Practice Prediction
Many articles introducing GCR mention this; I won’t elaborate further here, you can search for more information.
Next, let’s talk about some assets that I am more optimistic about:
2. ETH ETF
ETH ETF is great, no need for further explanation. Apart from leverage, the best Beta for ETH is assets with ETH in their names, such as $ETHFI $ENS. ($ENA, I don’t recommend, $ETC is also an option, but the halving event has already ended). Although I hold $LDO and both fundamental and circulation conditions are good, considering its performance some time ago, I won’t recommend it (even though there has been some recovery recently).
Of course, the same goes for Pendle. However, I have already discussed Pendle many times this year, so I won’t go into detail here.
Regarding memes, apart from $PEPE, you can also take a look at $MOG, which is a meme that is quite popular overseas.
For ETH DeFi-related assets, I would consider $MKR. The future catalysts for $MKR are: split + SubDAO (another point worth noting is the collaboration between MakerDAO and Ethena).
For Beta, you can wait for ETH to truly start rising before chasing.
Let’s talk a bit more about Layer2.
1. BaseChain
I have invested in $DEGEN on Base, whether it can make money or not, only time will tell. We can look forward to what will happen to BaseChain when Coinbase launches its smart wallet. For projects that can generate cash flow in the long term, we should always keep an eye on them.
Pay more attention to opportunities on the Base chain, such as the gaming sector on it (for example, Aavegotchi $GHST). Aavegotchi’s Layer3, built on Base, is expected to launch its mainnet in Q2 of this year, possibly even this month.
2. Arbitrum
The Arbitrum community’s “200 million ARB Game Catalyst Plan” proposal vote should pass. This will definitely be a positive development for Arbitrum’s gaming ecosystem (such as TreasureDAO).
There is also an expectation for a Layer3 for $MAGIC in the future. On April 22nd, TreasureDAO already launched a Layer3 testnet, and it is expected to launch its mainnet in Q3 of this year, supporting staking on the mainnet.
Additionally, Radiant may be affected by the issuance of LayerZero tokens and the v3 upgrade (this has been hyped a few times already), indicating a possibility of short-term price increase (I am unlikely to participate).
3. AI
I will only discuss two assets in the AI sector with confirmed catalysts:
$FET
The merger will take place on 6.11/6.13, and it will be renamed $ASI afterwards.
$AR
Information related to $AO will be released on 6.13, participants can mine $AO through $AR.
I am more optimistic about $AR.
There are many other coins in the AI sector, but I won’t go into detail. The market sentiment in the AI sector will change according to external circumstances. However, I won’t consider participating in $WLD.
4. Political Meme
I only participated in $MAGA in political memes on the chain. I bought in at 35 yesterday and plan to hold on for a bit longer. I will pay attention to the sentencing hearing on 7.11 (Trump’s birthday is also coming up).
CEX’s political meme is $PEOPLE, and I have set a $1 billion market cap target for $PEOPLE.
For tokens with significant price fluctuations, my outlook articles may be somewhat delayed. Therefore, when we see Trump speaking out to compete for crypto voters, or unexpected events like the approval of an ETH ETF, we should realize that politics will become a mainstream narrative in the market. It is better to enter earlier.
5. Can Solana break new highs?
Initially, I thought that $SOL might be affected by the strength of $ETH (bloodsucking).
Now I have changed my mind: Solana’s property as a memecoin gambling platform (referring to those celebrity memes, most people would choose to issue memecoins on Solana) and the current market’s demand for memecoin gambling suggest that $SOL will not be too heavily influenced during this period – the crowds for $ETH and $SOL have already been divided, and those playing on $SOL are unlikely to easily switch to $ETH. Instead, the rise in $ETH will raise market expectations, drive market sentiment to highs, and Solana will benefit from it.
6. Others
1. Selfchain Mainnet
I was hurt by this asset ($FRONT) last year, so I’m not looking at it.
2. Fantom Sonic
Currently, the launch of the Sonic mainnet by Fantom is a Sell News for $FTM traders. Keep an eye on AC’s actions after the launch, as they have to do something with it once it’s out (my expectation).
3. Uniswap’s “Fee Switch Mechanism” vote
It has been postponed. The reason might be pressure from a certain VC on Uniswap. I will keep an eye on this matter (as a spectator), but I probably won’t participate in the speculation of $UNI.
4. June is also a month with many airdrops, so be cautious of the risks.
7. Cryptocurrency Events in June, from Layergg
Mark your Crypto events!
June 3: $CEEK – CEEK 3.0
June 3: $DUSK – €3.5M Bond Offering
June 4: $MINA – Berkeley upgrade
June 4: $MPL – SyrupFi Launch Webinar
June 5: $ATOM – V17 Upgrade
June 5: Coinbase Smart wallet Launch
June 6: $FRONT – Selfchain Mainnet
June 10: $RNDR – Apple WWDC 2024
June 10: $ZKJ – Polyhedra Staking
June 11: $FET – ASI Merge
June 12: U.S. – CPI
June 13: $STX – Stacks showcase
June 13: Bithumb – Delisting Decision $ALEX
June 13: $AR – AO token Launch
June 14: $CHZ – Euro 2024 starts
June 14: $CYBER – Mainnet Staking
June 18: Bithumb – Delisting Decision $GALA
June 18: $XLM – Mainnet upgrade vote
June 19: $FLOW – Testnet Network Upgrade
June 20: $BNB – Tycho hard fork
June 24: $MTL – Snapshot
June 25: $BTT – Halving of BTFS Storage Rewards
June 25: $SD – Mega burn
June 26: $THETA – Edge Node client Release
June 26: $FLUX – Fluxedge Alpha Public
June 27: 1st Trump/Biden debate
June 28: $VET – VeBetterDAO Mainnet
Token Generation Event
June 5: Taiko @taikoxyz
June 6: Ultiverse @UltiverseDAO
June 13: zkSync @zksync
June 20: Lista @lista_dao
June 26: Blast @Blast_L2
TBD: LayerZero @LayerZero_Labs
TBD: Avail @AvailProject
TBD: Swell @swellnetworkio
Token Unlock
$APT – $100M June 12
$STRK – $80M June 15
$ARB – $100M June 16
$UNI – $90M June 16
$OP – $80M June 30
Major Announcement
Ethereum spot ETF Launch
$FTM – $S Rebranding
$UNI – Fee switch Approval
$GAL – $G Rebranding
$APE – Apechain Mainnet
$GHST – Gotchichain Mainnet
$RDNT – Radiant V3
$ACE – Fusionist game Release
$AIOZ – AIOZ W3AI
