Author: Rain While Sleeping in the Rain Source: X, @0xSleepinRain
In this month’s content, after doing plenty of addition, this time I want to try the effects of subtraction. I will only discuss my thoughts on future market trends and some specific time points (catalysts) of events.
This cycle seems to only benefit meme coin gamblers. $WIF is doing okay, the price fluctuations of $PEPE are quite significant, but very few people truly benefit throughout the process. There are also some fundamentally strong coins, but they are few, like $PENDLE. If we were to choose the word of the year, PVP would definitely be one of them.
So, how should we proceed?
Firstly, here are some of my personal thoughts:
1. Fundamentals and Community
Are fundamentals important? I believe they are crucial.
I think current fundamentals should refer to the ability to “capture market attention.” The current fundamentals are closely related to project data, chips, community stickiness, marketing/KOL statements, narratives/catalysts, and the ability to meet the core needs of the market. We should look at a project more comprehensively.
Take $PENDLE for example. I personally believe that Pendle excels in these aspects. In terms of fundamentals and narrative relevance, the initial rise was due to Pendle catering to the LSD narrative, and this year Pendle has been deeply involved in the LRT narrative, driving the price further up. This alignment with narratives keeps Pendle at the forefront of market attention. That is, when people discuss or consider buying, they think of Pendle.
I have also participated in Pendle’s community, and Pendle’s community stickiness and product education are well done. For example, the account @PendleIntern does an excellent job, allowing users interested in Pendle products to learn about strategies through this account, and thus develop plans that are more suitable for their financial situation.
I won’t delve into the marketing aspect too much, there are plenty of introductions to Pendle on Twitter that you can search for. In summary, these marketing contents are mostly based on logic, data, and product-related short articles, threads, and prints.
When considering most projects, we need to refer to these indicators.
2. Information Transmission
It is important to understand at which level of information transmission you are located.
3. Market Sentiment
Learning to observe market sentiment is key. The specific method is to delve into the community, observe community members/community KOLs’ statements, and see what smart money is saying at market sentiment highs/lows on Twitter.
You can establish your own information flow to observe market sentiment at key time points.
Looking back at the market sentiment at the beginning of May, do you sense it?
Quick Tip: You can scroll through Douyin.
Also, remember to observe your own emotional fluctuations.
4. Practice Prediction
Many articles on GCR have mentioned this, so I won’t elaborate further here. You can look it up.
Next, let’s discuss some of the projects I am more optimistic about:
ETH ETF
ETH ETF is great, no need for further explanation. Besides leveraging, the best Beta for ETH is projects with ETH in their name, like $ETHFI $ENS. (I won’t recommend $ENA, $ETC could be considered, but the halving event has already ended). Although I hold $LDO and its fundamentals and circulation are quite good, considering its recent performance, I won’t recommend it (even though there has been some recovery lately).
Of course, the same goes for Pendle. However, I have talked about Pendle many times this year, so I won’t elaborate here.
Regarding memes, apart from $PEPE, you can take a look at $MOG, which is a meme that is quite popular overseas.
In terms of ETH DeFi, I would consider $MKR. The future catalysts for $MKR are: split + SubDAO (another point worth paying attention to is the collaboration between MakerDAO and Ethena).
As for Beta, you can wait for ETH to truly start rising before chasing.
Let’s talk a bit more about Layer2.
1. BaseChain
I have invested in $DEGEN on BaseChain, whether it will make money or not, only time will tell. We can look forward to what will happen to BaseChain when Coinbase launches its smart wallet. For projects that can bring long-term cash flow to the project, we should always keep an eye on them.
Pay attention to opportunities on the BaseChain, such as the gaming sector (like Aavegotchi $GHST) on the network. Aavegotchi’s Layer3, built on Base, is expected to launch its mainnet in Q2 of this year, possibly this month.
2. Arbitrum
The Arbitrum community’s “2 billion ARB game catalyst plan” proposal vote is likely to pass. This is definitely a positive development for Arbitrum’s gaming ecosystem (such as TreasureDAO).
There is also an expectation for a Layer3 for $MAGIC in the future. On April 22nd, TreasureDAO already launched its Layer3 testnet, and is expected to launch its mainnet in Q3 of this year, with mainnet support for staking.
Additionally, Radiant may be affected by the issuance and v3 upgrade of LayerZero (which has been hyped several times, but I am unlikely to participate), possibly leading to a short-term price increase.
AI
I will only discuss two projects in the AI sector that have definite catalyst dates:
$FET
The merger is set to occur on 6.11/6.13, after which it will be renamed $ASI.
$AR
Information related to $AO will be released on 6.13, and participants can mine $AO through $AR.
I personally lean towards $AR more.
There are many other coins in the AI sector, so I won’t go into detail. The market sentiment in the AI sector will fluctuate depending on external factors. However, I won’t consider participating in $WLD.
Political Memes
I have only participated in $MAGA in political memes on the blockchain. I bought in at 35 yesterday and am prepared to hold and see. I will pay attention to the sentencing hearing on 7.11 (Trump’s birthday is also approaching).
On CEX, the political meme is $PEOPLE, and I have set a $1 billion market cap target for $PEOPLE.
My outlook articles for tokens with significant price fluctuations may be somewhat delayed. Therefore, when we see Trump speaking up to court Crypto voters, or unexpected events like the approval of the ETH ETF, we should realize that politics will become a mainstream narrative in the market. It’s better to enter earlier.
Can Solana break new highs?
Initially, I thought that $SOL might be influenced by the strength of $ETH (vampire effect).
Now I have changed my opinion: Solana’s property as a meme coin gambling arena (referencing the fact that most people choose to issue meme coins on Solana) makes it a necessity in the current market for meme coin gambling. Therefore, I believe that $SOL will not be drained too much during this period – the crowds for $ETH and $SOL have already been divided, and those playing on $SOL are unlikely to easily switch to $ETH. Instead, an increase in $ETH will raise market expectations, driving market sentiment towards highs, and Solana will benefit from this.
Other
1. Selfchain Mainnet
I got hurt by this project ($FRONT) last year, so I am not looking at it.
2. Fantom Sonic
Currently, the launch of the Sonic mainnet by Fantom is a Sell News event for $FTM traders. Keep an eye on AC’s subsequent actions, once the chain is out, there will surely be some activity on it (this is my expectation).
3. Uniswap “Fee Switch Mechanism” Vote
This has been postponed. The reason may be pressure from a certain VC on Uniswap. I will keep an eye on this matter (as a spectator), but I most likely won’t participate in trading $UNI.
4. June is also a month of airdrops, so be cautious of the risks.
Crypto June Event Calendar, sourced from Layergg
Mark your Crypto events!
June 3: $CEEK – CEEK 3.0
June 3: $DUSK – €3.5M Bond Offering
June 4: $MINA – Berkeley upgrade
June 4: $MPL – SyrupFi Launch Webinar
June 5: $ATOM – V17 Upgrade
June 5: Coinbase Smart wallet Launch
June 6: $FRONT – Selfchain Mainnet
June 10: $RNDR – Apple WWDC 2024
June 10: $ZKJ – Polyhedra Staking
June 11: $FET – ASI Merge
June 12: U.S. – CPI
June 13: $STX – Stacks showcase
June 13: Bithumb – Delisting Decision $ALEX
June 13: $AR – AO token Launch
June 14: $CHZ – Euro 2024 starts
June 14: $CYBER – Mainnet Staking
June 18: Bithumb – Delisting Decision $GALA
June 18: $XLM – Mainnet upgrade vote
June 19: $FLOW – Testnet Network Upgrade
June 20: $BNB – Tycho hard fork
June 24: $MTL – Snapshot
June 25: $BTT – Halving of BTFS Storage Rewards
June 25: $SD – Mega burn
June 26: $THETA – Edge Node client Release
June 26: $FLUX – Fluxedge Alpha Public
June 27: 1st Trump/Biden debate
June 28: $VET – VeBetterDAO Mainnet
Token Generation Event
June 5: Taiko @taikoxyz
June 6: Ultiverse @UltiverseDAO
June 13: zkSync @zksync
June 20: Lista @lista_dao
June 26: Blast @Blast_L2
TBD: LayerZero @LayerZero_Labs
TBD: Avail @AvailProject
TBD: Swell @swellnetworkio
Token Unlock
$APT – $100M June 12
$STRK – $80M June 15
$ARB – $100M June 16
$UNI – $90M June 16
$OP – $80M June 30
Major Announcement
Ethereum spot ETF Launch
$FTM – $S Rebranding
$UNI – Fee switch Approval
$GAL – $G Rebranding
$APE – Apechain Mainnet
$GHST – Gotchichain Mainnet
$RDNT – Radiant V3
$ACE – Fusionist game Release
$AIOZ – AIOZ W3AI
