Author: Rainy Sleeper Source: X, @0xSleepinRain
In this monthly content, after adding enough, this time I want to try the effect of subtraction. I will only talk about my thoughts on future market trends and some specific events (catalysts).
This cycle seems to only benefit meme coin gamblers. $WIF is okay, the price fluctuation of $PEPE is quite large, but few actually profit throughout. There are also some fundamentally strong coins, but they are few, like $PENDLE. If we were to choose the word of the year, PVP would definitely be one of them.
So, what should we do?
1. Here are some of my personal thoughts:
1. Fundamentals and Community
Are fundamentals important? I think they are very important.
I believe that current fundamentals should refer to the ability to “capture market attention.” The current fundamentals are closely related to project data, chips, community stickiness, marketing/KOL comments, narratives/catalysts, and whether they can meet the core needs of the market. It is essential to look at an asset in a more comprehensive way.
For example, $PENDLE. I personally think that Pendle excels in these aspects. In terms of fundamentals and narrative relevance, the initial rise was due to Pendle aligning with the LSD narrative, and this year Pendle has deeply engaged in the LRT narrative, driving the price further up. This alignment with the narrative keeps Pendle at the forefront of market attention. That is, when people discuss or consider buying, they will think of Pendle.
I have also been involved in Pendle’s community, and Pendle has done well in terms of community stickiness and product education. For example, the @PendleIntern account is excellent, allowing users genuinely interested in Pendle’s products to learn about some strategies through this account and develop plans that suit their financial situation.
I won’t delve into marketing, there are plenty of introductions to Pendle on Twitter, which you can look up. In summary, marketing content is mostly logical, data-based, and product-centered short articles, threads, and prints.
When considering most assets, we need to refer to these indicators.
2. Information Transmission
It is crucial to understand at which level of information transmission you are at.
3. Market Sentiment
Learn to observe market sentiment. A specific method is to delve into the community, observe community members/community KOLs’ statements, and check Twitter for smart money’s comments at market sentiment highs/lows.
You can establish your own information flow to observe market sentiment at key time points.
Looking back at the market sentiment in early May, did it have that flavor?
A small tip: you can check out Douyin.
Also, remember to observe your own emotional fluctuations.
4. Practice Forecasting
Many articles introducing GCR mention this, so I won’t elaborate. You can look it up.
Next, let’s discuss some assets I am optimistic about:
2. ETH ETF
ETH ETF is great, no need to say more. Apart from leveraged trading, the best Beta for ETH is assets with ETH in their name, like $ETHFI $ENS. (I won’t recommend $ENA, $ETC is okay, but the halving event has ended). Although I hold $LDO and its fundamentals and circulation conditions are good, considering its performance a while back, I won’t recommend it (even though it has shown some recovery recently).
Of course, the same goes for Pendle. However, I have talked about Pendle many times this year, so I won’t go into detail here.
In terms of memes, apart from $PEPE, you can also look at $MOG, a meme that has garnered a lot of attention overseas.
Regarding ETH DeFi, I would consider $MKR. The future catalysts for $MKR are: split + SubDAO (another point worth noting is the collaboration between MakerDAO and Ethena).
Regarding Beta, you can wait for ETH to really start rising before chasing.
A few more words about Layer2.
1. BaseChain
I have invested in $DEGEN on Base, whether I can make money or not remains to be seen. We can look forward to what will happen on BaseChain once Coinbase launches its smart wallet. For projects that can bring long-term cash flow to the team, we should always keep an eye on them.
Pay attention to opportunities on the Base chain, such as the gaming sector (like Aavegotchi $GHST). Aavegotchi’s Layer3 built on Base is expected to launch its mainnet in Q2 this year, possibly this month.
2. Arbitrum
The Arbitrum community’s “2 billion ARB game catalyst plan” proposal should be approved. This is definitely a positive for Arbitrum’s gaming ecosystem (like TreasureDAO).
$MAGIC also has expectations for a Layer3 in the future. On April 22nd, TreasureDAO launched the Layer3 testnet, and it is expected to launch its mainnet in Q3 this year, supporting staking on the mainnet.
Additionally, Radiant may be affected by LayerZero’s coin issuance and v3 upgrade (which has been hyped a few times), possibly experiencing a short-term uptrend (which I am unlikely to participate in).
3. AI
I will only talk about two assets in the AI sector with confirmed catalysts:
$FET
The merger will take place on 6.11/6.13, and it will be renamed to $ASI.
$AR
Information related to $AO will be released on 6.13, and participants can mine $AO through $AR.
I am more optimistic about $AR.
There are many other coins in the AI sector, but I won’t go into detail. The market sentiment in the AI sector will change according to external factors. However, I won’t consider participating in $WLD.
4. Political Meme
I have only participated in the political meme on-chain $MAGA. I bought it at 35 yesterday and am prepared to hold it for a while. I will pay attention to the sentencing hearing on 7.11 (Trump’s birthday is also approaching).
On CEX, the political meme is $PEOPLE, and I have set a market value target of 1 billion USD for $PEOPLE.
For tokens with significant price fluctuations, my outlook articles may be somewhat lagging. Therefore, upon seeing Trump campaigning for Crypto voters or unexpected events such as the approval of the ETH ETF, we should realize that politics will become a mainstream narrative in the market. It’s better to enter earlier.
5. Can Solana break new highs?
Initially, I thought that $SOL might be influenced by the strength of $ETH (siphoning).
Now, I have changed my mind: Solana’s property as a meme coin gambling platform (referring to those celebrity memes, most people would choose to launch memecoins on Solana), and the current market’s demand for memecoin gambling, lead me to believe that $SOL will not be siphoned too much in this period – the crowds for $ETH and $SOL are already divided, and those playing on $SOL are unlikely to easily migrate to $ETH. Instead, an increase in $ETH will raise market expectations, drive market sentiment towards highs, and Solana will benefit.
6. Miscellaneous
1. Selfchain Mainnet
I was hurt by this asset ($FRONT) last year, so I won’t look at it.
2. Fantom Sonic
Currently, the launch of the Sonic mainnet by Fantom is a Sell News for $FTM traders. Keep an eye on AC’s future actions, once it launches, it must do something (my expectation).
3. Uniswap “Launch Fee Mechanism” Vote
Postponed. The reason may be pressure from a VC on Uniswap. I will keep an eye on this matter (as an onlooker), but I probably won’t participate in trading $UNI.
4. June is also a month of airdrops, so pay attention to the risks.
7. Cryptocurrency events in June, sourced from Layergg
Mark your Crypto events!
June 3: $CEEK – CEEK 3.0
June 3: $DUSK – €3.5M Bond Offering
June 4: $MINA – Berkeley upgrade
June 4: $MPL – SyrupFi Launch Webinar
June 5: $ATOM – V17 Upgrade
June 5: Coinbase Smart wallet Launch
June 6: $FRONT – Selfchain Mainnet
June 10: $RNDR – Apple WWDC 2024
June 10: $ZKJ – Polyhedra Staking
June 11: $FET – ASI Merge
June 12: U.S. – CPI
June 13: $STX – Stacks showcase
June 13: Bithumb – Delisting Decision $ALEX
June 13: $AR – AO token Launch
June 14: $CHZ – Euro 2024 starts
June 14: $CYBER – Mainnet Staking
June 18: Bithumb – Delisting Decision $GALA
June 18: $XLM – Mainnet upgrade vote
June 19: $FLOW – Testnet Network Upgrade
June 20: $BNB – Tycho hard fork
June 24: $MTL – Snapshot
June 25: $BTT – Halving of BTFS Storage Rewards
June 25: $SD – Mega burn
June 26: $THETA – Edge Node client Release
June 26: $FLUX – Fluxedge Alpha Public
June 27: 1st Trump/Biden debate
June 28: $VET – VeBetterDAO Mainnet
Token Generation Event
June 5: Taiko @taikoxyz
June 6: Ultiverse @UltiverseDAO
June 13: zkSync @zksync
June 20: Lista @lista_dao
June 26: Blast @Blast_L2
TBD: LayerZero @LayerZero_Labs
TBD: Avail @AvailProject
TBD: Swell @swellnetworkio
Token Unlock
$APT – $100M June 12
$STRK – $80M June 15
$ARB – $100M June 16
$UNI – $90M June 16
$OP – $80M June 30
Major Announcement
Ethereum spot ETF Launch
$FTM – $S Rebranding
$UNI – Fee switch Approval
$GAL – $G Rebranding
$APE – Apechain Mainnet
$GHST – Gotchichain Mainnet
$RDNT – Radiant V3
$ACE – Fusionist game Release
$AIOZ – AIOZ W3AI
