Author: Rainy Sleeper Source: X, @0xSleepinRain
In this month’s content, after adding enough, this time I want to try the effect of subtraction. I will only discuss my thoughts on future market trends and some specific time points (catalysts) of events.
This cycle seems to only benefit meme coin gamblers. $WIF is okay, and the price fluctuations of $PEPE are quite large, with very few people really benefiting throughout. Some fundamental coins have performed excellently, but there are few, just a few like $PENDLE. If we were to select the annual hot word, PVP would definitely be one of them.
So how do we do it?
Firstly, here are some of my personal thoughts:
1. Fundamental Analysis and Community
Are fundamentals important? I think they are very important.
I believe current fundamentals should refer to the ability to “attract market attention.” The current fundamentals are closely related to project data, chips, community stickiness, marketing/KOL statements, narratives/catalysts, and whether they can meet the core needs of the market. It is essential to take a more comprehensive look at a target.
For example, $PENDLE. I personally think Pendle excels in these aspects. In terms of the correlation between fundamentals and narratives, the initial rise was due to Pendle aligning with the LSD narrative, and this year Pendle has deeply engaged in the LRT narrative, driving the price to continue rising. This alignment with narratives keeps Pendle at the forefront of market attention. That is, when people discuss or intend to buy, they will think of Pendle.
I have also participated in Pendle’s community, and Pendle has done well in community stickiness and product education. For example, the @PendleIntern account does a great job, allowing users genuinely interested in Pendle products to learn about some strategies through this account, thus formulating a plan that better fits their financial situation.
I won’t talk much about marketing, there are many introductions to Pendle on Twitter, so you can search and see. In summary, most of the marketing content is based on logic, data, and product short articles, threads, and prints.
When dealing with most targets, we need to refer to these indicators.
2. Information Transmission
It is important to recognize at which layer of information transmission you are.
3. Market Sentiment
Learning to observe market sentiment, specific methods include delving into the community, observing community members/community KOLs’ statements, and checking Twitter for the intelligent money’s sentiments at market highs/lows.
You can establish your information flow to observe market sentiment at key time points.
Looking back at the market sentiment at the beginning of May, does it have that flavor?
Quick Tip: You can check out TikTok.
Also, remember to observe your own emotional fluctuations.
4. Practice Prediction
Many articles introducing GCR mention this, so I won’t elaborate further, you can search for more information.
Next, let’s talk about some targets I am more optimistic about:
Secondly, ETH ETF
ETH ETF is great, no need to say much. Apart from leverage, the best beta for ETH is the targets with ETH in their names, such as $ETHFI $ENS. ($ENA I won’t recommend, $ETC is okay, but the halving event has ended). Although I hold $LDO, and its fundamentals and circulation are quite good, considering its performance in the recent past, I won’t recommend it (even though there has been some recovery recently).
Of course, the same goes for Pendle. However, I have already talked about Pendle many times this year, so I won’t dwell on it here.
Regarding meme coins, apart from $PEPE, you can look at $MOG, which is a meme that is quite popular overseas.
For ETH DeFi-related targets, I would consider $MKR. The future catalysts for $MKR are: splitting + SubDAO (another point worth noting is the collaboration between MakerDAO and Ethena).
As for beta, you can wait for ETH to truly start rising before chasing.
Let’s talk a bit more about Layer2.
1. BaseChain
On Base, I have staked $DEGEN, whether it can make money still needs time to verify. We can look forward to what will happen to BaseChain when Coinbase launches its smart wallet. For projects that can bring cash flow to the project team in the long term, we should always keep an eye on them.
Pay more attention to opportunities on the Base chain, such as the game sector on it (such as Aavegotchi $GHST). Aavegotchi’s Layer3 built on Base will be launched in Q2 of this year. It may happen this month.
2. Arbitrum
The Arbitrum community’s “2 billion ARB game catalyst plan” proposal vote should pass. This is definitely good news for Arbitrum’s gaming ecosystem (such as TreasureDAO).
$MAGIC also has a Layer3 expectation in the future. On April 22, TreasureDAO already launched the Layer3 testnet, and is expected to launch the mainnet in Q3 of this year, supporting staking on the mainnet.
Additionally, Radiant may be affected by LayerZero issuing coins and the v3 upgrade (which has been hyped a few times already), with a possibility of a short-term increase (I probably won’t participate).
Thirdly, AI
I will only discuss two targets in the AI sector with confirmed catalysts:
$FET
The merger will take place on 6.11/6.13, and then it will be renamed as $ASI.
$AR
Information related to $AO will be released on 6.13, and participants can mine $AO through $AR.
I am more optimistic about $AR.
There are many other coins in the AI sector, so I won’t repeat them all. The market sentiment in the AI sector will change according to external environmental changes. However, I won’t consider participating in $WLD.
Fourthly, Political Meme
I have only participated in the political meme on-chain $MAGA. I bought it at 35 yesterday and am prepared to hold onto it for a while. I will be paying attention to the sentencing hearing on 7.11 (Trump’s birthday is also coming soon).
The political meme on CEX is $PEOPLE, and I will set a $1 billion market value target for $PEOPLE.
For tokens with significant price fluctuations, my outlook articles may be somewhat lagging. So, when you see Trump speaking out to compete for crypto voters, or unexpected events like the approval of ETH ETF, we should realize that politics will become a mainstream narrative in the market. Enter earlier.
Fifthly, Can Solana break through to new highs?
Initially, I thought that $SOL might be influenced by the strength of $ETH (vampire).
Now I have changed my mind: Solana’s property as a meme coin gambling venue (referring to those celebrity memes, most people would choose to issue meme coins on Solana) and the current market demand for meme coin gambling suggests that $SOL will not be drained too much during this period— the current audience for $ETH and $SOL has already been divided, and those playing $SOL will not easily migrate to $ETH. Instead, the rise of $ETH will raise market expectations, push market sentiment towards highs, and Solana will be the beneficiary.
Sixthly, Others
1. Selfchain Mainnet
I was hurt by this target ($FRONT) last year, so I won’t look at it.
2. Fantom Sonic
Currently, the launch of the Sonic mainnet by Fantom is a sell news event for $FTM traders. Keep an eye on AC’s subsequent actions, once it comes out, it must do something on it (my expectation).
3. Uniswap “Fee Switch Mechanism” Vote
It has been postponed. The reason might be that a VC is pressuring Uniswap. I will keep an eye on this (as a bystander), but $UNI probably won’t be involved in speculation.
4. June is also a month of airdrops, so be cautious of risks.
Seventhly, Crypto June Event Calendar, sourced from Layergg
Mark your Crypto events!
June 3: $CEEK – CEEK 3.0
June 3: $DUSK – €3.5M Bond Offering
June 4: $MINA – Berkeley upgrade
June 4: $MPL – SyrupFi Launch Webinar
June 5: $ATOM – V17 Upgrade
June 5: Coinbase Smart wallet Launch
June 6: $FRONT – Selfchain Mainnet
June 10: $RNDR – Apple WWDC 2024
June 10: $ZKJ – Polyhedra Staking
June 11: $FET – ASI Merge
June 12: U.S. – CPI
June 13: $STX – Stacks showcase
June 13: Bithumb – Delisting Decision $ALEX
June 13: $AR – AO token Launch
June 14: $CHZ – Euro 2024 starts
June 14: $CYBER – Mainnet Staking
June 18: Bithumb – Delisting Decision $GALA
June 18: $XLM – Mainnet upgrade vote
June 19: $FLOW – Testnet Network Upgrade
June 20: $BNB – Tycho hard fork
June 24: $MTL – Snapshot
June 25: $BTT – Halving of BTFS Storage Rewards
June 25: $SD – Mega burn
June 26: $THETA – Edge Node client Release
June 26: $FLUX – Fluxedge Alpha Public
June 27: 1st Trump/Biden debate
June 28: $VET – VeBetterDAO Mainnet
Token Generation Event
June 5: Taiko @taikoxyz
June 6: Ultiverse @UltiverseDAO
June 13: zkSync @zksync
June 20: Lista @lista_dao
June 26: Blast @Blast_L2
TBD: LayerZero @LayerZero_Labs
TBD: Avail @AvailProject
TBD: Swell @swellnetworkio
Token Unlock
$APT – $100M June 12
$STRK – $80M June 15
$ARB – $100M June 16
$UNI – $90M June 16
$OP – $80M June 30
Major Announcement
Ethereum spot ETF Launch
$FTM – $S Rebranding
$UNI – Fee switch Approval
$GAL – $G Rebranding
$APE – Apechain Mainnet
$GHST – Gotchichain Mainnet
$RDNT – Radiant V3
$ACE – Fusionist game Release
$AIOZ – AIOZ W3AI
