Author: Rain in the Rain Source: X, @0xSleepinRain
In this month’s content, after adding enough, this time I want to try the effect of subtraction. I will only discuss my thoughts on the future market trends and some specific events (catalysts).
This cycle seems to only benefit meme coin gamblers. $WIF is okay, the price fluctuations of $PEPE are quite large, and very few people truly benefit throughout. Fundamental coins also have performed well, but there are fewer, just a few, such as $PENDLE. If we were to select an annual buzzword, PVP would definitely be one of them.
So how do we proceed?
Below are some of my personal thoughts:
1. Fundamentals and Community
Are fundamentals important? I believe they are crucial.
I believe current fundamentals should refer to the ability to “capture market attention.” Current fundamentals are closely related to project data, chip, community stickiness, marketing/KOL discourse, narratives/catalysts, and whether they can meet the core needs of the market. It is essential to take a more comprehensive look at a target.
For example, $PENDLE. I personally believe that Pendle excels in these aspects. In terms of fundamentals and narrative relevance, the initial rise was due to Pendle catering to the LSD narrative, and this year Pendle has been deeply involved in the LRT narrative, driving prices to continue to rise. This alignment with the narrative keeps Pendle at the forefront of market attention. That is, when people discuss or intend to buy, they will think of Pendle.
I have also participated in Pendle’s community, and Pendle has done well in terms of community stickiness and product education. For example, the @PendleIntern account does a great job, allowing users genuinely interested in Pendle products to learn some strategies through this account and hence develop a plan more suitable for their financial situation.
I won’t delve into marketing, but there is a lot of information on Twitter about Pendle that people can search for. In summary, these marketing contents are mostly based on logic, data, and product short articles, threads, and prints, with few blind recommendations.
When considering most targets, we need to refer to these indicators.
2. Information Transmission
It is essential to understand at which layer of information transmission one is located.
3. Market Sentiment
Learn to observe market sentiment. A specific method is to delve into the community, observe community members/community KOL statements, and see what those savvy individuals are saying on Twitter at high/low points of market sentiment.
Establish your information flow to observe market sentiment at key time points.
Looking back at the market sentiment at the beginning of May, does it have that flavor?
Quick Tip: You can check out TikTok.
Also, remember to observe your own emotional fluctuations.
4. Practice Prediction
Many articles on GCR mention this, so I won’t elaborate further here. You can search for more information.
Let’s now discuss some targets that I am more optimistic about:
II. ETH ETF
ETH ETF is great, no need for additional words. Apart from leverage, the best beta for ETH is in the targets with ETH in their name, such as $ETHFI $ENS. ($ENA I wouldn’t recommend, $ETC is a consideration, but the halving event has already ended). Although I hold $LDO, and its fundamentals and circulation are quite good, considering its performance some time ago, I won’t recommend it (even though it has shown some signs of recovery recently).
Of course, the same goes for Pendle. However, I have already discussed Pendle many times this year, so I won’t elaborate on it here.
Regarding memes, apart from $PEPE, you can consider $MOG, which is a meme that is quite popular overseas.
For ETH DeFi-related targets, I would consider $MKR. $MKR’s future catalysts are: splitting + SubDAO (another point worth noting is the cooperation between MakerDAO and Ethena).
For beta, you can wait for ETH to truly start rising before chasing it.
Let’s talk a bit about Layer2.
1. BaseChain
On Base, I have staked $DEGEN, whether it can make money still needs time to verify. We can look forward to what will happen on BaseChain when Coinbase launches its smart wallet. For projects that can generate cash flow in the long term, we should always stay tuned.
Pay attention to opportunities on the Base chain, such as the gaming sector on it (like Aavegotchi $GHST). Aavegotchi’s Layer3 built on Base will be launched on the mainnet in Q2 of this year, possibly even this month.
2. Arbitrum
Arbitrum’s “200 million ARB game catalyst plan” proposal vote should pass. This event is definitely positive for Arbitrum’s gaming ecosystem (such as TreasureDAO).
$MAGIC also has a Layer3 expectation in the future. On April 22nd, TreasureDAO has already launched the Layer3 testnet, and it is expected to launch the mainnet in Q3 of this year, with mainnet support for staking.
Additionally, Radiant may be influenced by LayerZero’s coin issuance and v3 upgrade (which has already been speculated a few times), with a possibility of a short-term rise (which I am mostly likely not participating in).
III. AI
In the AI sector, I will only discuss two targets with confirmed date catalysts:
$FET
The merger will take place on 6.11/6.13, after which it will be renamed to $ASI.
$AR
Information related to $AO will be released on 6.13, and participants can mine $AO through $AR.
I personally prefer $AR some more.
There are many other coins in the AI sector, so I won’t go into detail. The market sentiment in the AI sector will change according to external environmental changes. However, I won’t consider participating in $WLD.
IV. Political Meme
In the political Meme on the chain, I have only participated in $MAGA. I bought it at 35 yesterday and am prepared to hold it for a while. I will be paying attention to the sentencing hearing on 7.11 (Trump’s birthday is also approaching).
On CEX, the political meme is $PEOPLE, and I have set a $1 billion market value target for $PEOPLE.
For tokens with significant price fluctuations, my outlook articles may have some lag. Therefore, upon seeing Trump actively vying for crypto voters or unexpected events like the approval of ETH ETF, we should realize that politics will become a mainstream narrative in the market. It is better to enter early.
V. Can Solana break new highs?
Initially, I thought $SOL might be affected by the strength of $ETH (siphoning).
Now I have changed my mind: Solana’s property as a meme coin gambling platform (referring to those celebrity memes, most people would choose to issue meme coins on Solana), and the current market’s demand for meme coin gambling are essential.
Therefore, I believe that $SOL will not be siphoned too much during this period – the crowds of $ETH and $SOL have already been differentiated, and people playing $SOL will not easily move to $ETH. Instead, the rise of $ETH will raise market expectations, drive market sentiment towards a high point, and Solana will be the beneficiary.
VI. Other
1. Selfchain Mainnet
I got hurt by this target ($FRONT) last year, so I’m not looking at it.
2. Fantom Sonic
Currently, the launch of the Sonic mainnet by Fantom is a Sell News event for $FTM’s traders. Keep an eye on AC’s subsequent actions; once the chain is out, there must be something to do on it (my expectation).
3. Uniswap “Fee Mechanism Activation” vote
It has been postponed. The reason may be that a VC is pressuring Uniswap. I will keep an eye on this (as a bystander), but I most likely won’t participate in trading $UNI.
4. June is also a month of large airdrops, so be cautious of the risks.
VII. Crypto June Event Schedule, sourced from Layergg
Mark your Crypto events!
3 June: $CEEK – CEEK 3.0
3 June: $DUSK – €3.5M Bond Offering
4 June: $MINA – Berkeley upgrade
4 June: $MPL – SyrupFi Launch Webinar
5 June: $ATOM – V17 Upgrade
5 June: Coinbase Smart wallet Launch
6 June: $FRONT – Selfchain Mainnet
10 June: $RNDR – Apple WWDC 2024
10 June: $ZKJ – Polyhedra Staking
11 June: $FET – ASI Merge
12 June: U.S. – CPI
13 June: $STX – Stacks showcase
13 June: Bithumb – Delisting Decision $ALEX
13 June: $AR – AO token Launch
14 June: $CHZ – Euro 2024 starts
14 June: $CYBER – Mainnet Staking
18 June: Bithumb – Delisting Decision $GALA
18 June: $XLM – Mainnet upgrade vote
19 June: $FLOW – Testnet Network Upgrade
20 June: $BNB – Tycho hard fork
24 June: $MTL – Snapshot
25 June: $BTT – Halving of BTFS Storage Rewards
25 June: $SD – Mega burn
26 June: $THETA – Edge Node client Release
26 June: $FLUX – Fluxedge Alpha Public
27 June: 1st Trump/Biden debate
28 June: $VET – VeBetterDAO Mainnet
Token Generation Event
June 5: Taiko @taikoxyz
June 6: Ultiverse @UltiverseDAO
June 13: zkSync @zksync
June 20: Lista @lista_dao
June 26: Blast @Blast_L2
TBD: LayerZero @LayerZero_Labs
TBD: Avail @AvailProject
TBD: Swell @swellnetworkio
Token Unlock
$APT – $100M June 12
$STRK – $80M June 15
$ARB – $100M June 16
$UNI – $90M June 16
$OP – $80M June 30
Major Announcement
Ethereum spot ETF Launch
$FTM – $S Rebranding
$UNI – Fee switch Approval
$GAL – $G Rebranding
$APE – Apechain Mainnet
$GHST – Gotchichain Mainnet
$RDNT – Radiant V3
$ACE – Fusionist game Release
$AIOZ – AIOZ W3AI
