Here’s a creatively rewritten version of the article while maintaining its essence and accuracy:
Original Author: Rainy Sleeper
GM friends, July outlook is here~
Let’s discuss potential narratives that might dominate July and my personal ratings.
1/ Ethereum S-Class
The most significant events in July are ETH ETF and Mt. Gox. Markets typically react ahead of events, with their impact diminishing as they unfold. This is why people often say “Buy the Rumor, Sell the News.” Historically, ETH might perform similarly to BTC post-ETF approval—considering the broader macro environment and the U.S. election’s impact on markets.
However, on the “Sell the News” front, I agree with Zhusu’s perspective. Market reflexivity, bro.
Regarding ETH Beta, previously I selected four coins: $ENS, $ETHFI, $TURBO, $MOG. $TURBO and $MOG are highly volatile, suitable for short-term gains, while $ENS has shown the best performance. Regarding $TURBO, my updated understanding is its limited correlation with ETH, hence its removal from the list. The current list includes: $ENS, $LDO, $PEPE, $MOG, $MKR ($MKR still in the narrative of splitting and renaming, protocol income / fundamentals are strong).
Interested friends can review my tweet below⬇️
https://x.com/0x SleepinRain/status/1801638573176930698
2/ Layer 1 (A-Class), Layer 2 (B-Class), Layer 3 (C-Class)
Solana A-Class
I’ve previously discussed my views; Solana currently revolves around the memecoin casino narrative. Catalysts such as ETF applications, Blink, and earlier narratives like Depin and Solana Mobile still need validation over time. In summary, Solana aims for mass adoption but faces a challenging road ahead. Currently, market demand for Solana is primarily speculative in memecoins.
Avalanche B-Class
Avalanche may launch new initiatives similar to the previous Avalanche Rush. “Proof of $AVAX Boost”
https://x.com/Flowslikeosmo/status/1805643864193351908
Fantom B-Class
Transitioning to $S, I’ve previously discussed in my tweets⬇️
https://x.com/0x SleepinRain/status/1805875415116136876
I don’t have much to share on Layer 2, mainly focusing on wealth effects on Basechain and farming opportunities on Arbitrum. However, Layer 2 tokens like $ARB, $OP have limited engagement opportunities. Also, if the ZK narrative explodes, you know which targets to choose 🙂
$ZK is the best ZK meme.
Regarding Layer 3, $XAI, let me briefly share my viewpoint.
Currently, Xai’s on-chain TPS has reached 104, ranking first among Ethereum Layer 2/Layer 3. I’ve previously explained this phenomenon in my tweets. Additionally, on July 9th, $XAI will unlock approximately 200 million tokens (71% of current circulation)—a significant unlocking event. Speculatively, could these events be correlated? Will Xai use data means to justify price growth more reasonably? Everything remains unknown. But I’ve added $XAI to my watchlist, ready to intervene immediately if there’s unusual price movement.
https://x.com/0x SleepinRain/status/1803298199295369417
$DEGEN, I’ve always been optimistic about it, but the price performance has been disappointing. Hence, I won’t elaborate further here.
In summary, the price of Layer 3 Token tokens primarily depends on catalysts and narratives. There aren’t many real users (referring to $DEGEN, $DMT, and $WINR here), with short-term gains outweighing long-term prospects.
3/ RWA A-Class
$ONDO is the top pick, closely related to BlackRock’s offerings. Ondo and Ethereum are the main battlegrounds for tokenization by BlackRock.
4/ AI A-Class
There’s not much to discuss. The merger of $FET, $OCEAN, $AGIX is nearing completion, and $WLD unlocking has begun. If sector growth depends on external product/technology releases, it’s also short-term speculation. In the 30-day narrative strength comparison, AI Token performance is the weakest.
https://dune.com/dyorcrypto/relative-strength-crypto-narrative
5/ Social, still a false proposition, current rating C.
Previously, I thought Coinbase Smart Wallet would spur Basechain speculation, but in this market sentiment, overall Basechain ecosystem performance isn’t impressive, with only $BRETT standing out. A big failure in this coin-picking wave. Reflection shows that market liquidity and sentiment aren’t enough to sustain a major Basechain ecosystem boom, with perhaps only one or two coins showing notable performance. It’s not good to intervene too early, so it’s best to monitor on-chain trends and intervene opportunistically.
6/ Gaming, current rating C. False proposition x2
Pixels Online remains strong in performance but weak in price performance.
The Beacon’s performance is poor—although related activities brought back old players and attracted new ones, sustainability isn’t strong.
Mavia has launched Phase 2, details can be found in this tweet, but the market isn’t buying⬇️
https://x.com/MaviaGame/status/1801857117797892497
From the comparison of narrative token strength in the past 90 days, it’s clear that gaming narratives haven’t performed well in the last quarter (low EQ: the worst). I’m hopeful for a turnaround but won’t intervene currently.
Specific events in July can be seen in this image⬇️
Regarding macro predictions, I recommend these two pieces:
https://x.com/DistilledCrypto/status/1803935278035537931
https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/shikata-ga-nai?utm_source=substackutm_campaign=post_embedutm_medium=web
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