Key Takeaways
According to prediction markets, there is a 52% chance that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 in 2024.
The surge in Bitcoin’s price to $86,000 is partly attributed to Trump’s presidential victory and institutional demand.
Prediction market platform Kalshi has recently estimated a 52% probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by the end of 2024.
Kalshi also indicates a 77% likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $90,000 this year, reflecting growing optimism that Bitcoin’s current rally could drive it to unprecedented levels.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin has reached an all-time high of $86,000, with a market capitalization of $1.7 trillion and record-breaking open interest in Bitcoin futures at $48 billion.
In line with Kalshi’s predictions, Polymarket has also introduced a market for Bitcoin’s performance in 2024, indicating a 61% chance of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by the end of that year.
Since the election, Bitcoin has consistently reached new highs, supported by increased capital inflows.
Historical data from CoinGlass shows that November has historically been Bitcoin’s strongest month, with an average return of 45%.
In just 11 days of November, Bitcoin has already increased by 20%. With its strong performance in November, Bitcoin would need an additional 17% gain to reach the $100,000 milestone.
The rise in stablecoins’ market capitalization to over $180 billion suggests additional capital inflows into the crypto market, which may soon shift towards Bitcoin and other digital assets.
Trump’s victory has also triggered a “crypto buying spree” as investors anticipate a more favorable regulatory environment under his administration.