Bitcoin’s price continues to decline, dropping 1.5% intra-day and 7.65% over the past week, reaching $62,130 on June 24. The possibility of recovering these losses in the coming days seems unlikely, as several indicators suggest that the price will further decline.
Will Bitcoin’s price drop to $60,000 next?
Since the bull market in March 2024, when it reached a new record high of around $74,000, Bitcoin has been consolidating within a downward parallel channel. Whenever Bitcoin tests the upper trendline as resistance, it retraces back to the lower trendline and only bounces back when it touches that trendline.
As of June 24, the BTC price has experienced a similar situation, retracing after touching the upper trendline at around $72,000 two weeks ago. BTC/USD is currently heading towards the lower trendline, aligning with the psychological support level of $60,000.
Interestingly, the downside target of $60,000 is closer to Bitcoin’s 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA; blue wave) of around $58,000. This convergence increases the likelihood of BTC approaching the range of $58,000-$60,000 in July.
Independent market analyst Teddy Cleps predicts that Bitcoin will fall to $61,000, as this level aligns with the 21-week EMA and historical support.
Cleps believes that “every correction since the beginning of the BTC bull market has landed on the 21-week EMA and bounced off it,” and adds, “As we speak, we are approaching it, and if history repeats itself, 61k is the bottom.”
BTC price will reach $55,000
Bitcoin’s continued consolidation trend aligns with the prediction made by Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd. founder Michael Novogratz in May. He believes that in the second quarter of 2024, the trading price of BTC will range between $55,000 and $75,000.
Novogratz expects new market events to drive prices higher after the stagnation caused by the launch of the spot US Bitcoin ETF and the halving-driven bull market. He states that strong economic data and fading optimism about a rate cut by the Federal Reserve are the reasons for the current market pause.
According to the investor, the consolidation between $55,000 and $75,000 will continue until there is an economic slowdown or regulatory clarity after the elections.
Mocking the $50,000 BTC price target
In contrast to Novogratz, Markus Thielen, the founder of 10x Research, predicts that Bitcoin will break the consolidation range and drop to $50,000, citing the possibility of a double top pattern.
A double top pattern is formed when the price reaches two similar peaks with a slight decline in between and maintains support above a common line called the “neckline.” This pattern usually disappears when the price falls below the neckline, and the magnitude of the decline may be equal to the distance between the peaks and the neckline.
As observed in the past three months, range trading is a complex phase often marked by several false breakouts. Historically, top formations have made retail investors vulnerable, and many altcoins have experienced significant declines.
Bullish flag raises hopes for BTC to rebound to $88,000
Meanwhile, the descending channel range resembles a classic bullish flag pattern, which forms within a range of downward sloping consolidation after a strong price rebound.
Bullish flag patterns typically end when the price breaks above the upper trendline and rises to the height of the previous uptrend. If this bullish scenario materializes, the Bitcoin price target will reach $88,000 (a new all-time high) as the primary upward target for July or August.
Additionally, Bitcoin’s daily relative strength index is the most oversold since August 2023. This could be a precursor to a potential recovery period, increasing the chances of BTC reaching the bull flag target.
