Bitcoin ETF Faces Continuous Sell-Off in the Past 5 Days
Source: https://www.coinglass.com/zh/bitcoin-etf
Recent data shows that the US Bitcoin ETF experienced a sell-off storm on June 17th! A total of 3,169 Bitcoins were sold, worth over $200 million!
Among them, well-known institution Fidelity sold 1,224 Bitcoins, worth a staggering $80.34 million, and still holds a large amount of Bitcoins. Another giant, Grayscale, also sold 936 Bitcoins, worth over $61.4 million. The sell-off by these two giants undoubtedly brought significant shock to the market.
This sell-off storm has raised more uncertainty about the future trend of the Bitcoin market, requiring better risk management.
There are approximately 38 days left until the next Federal Reserve interest rate meeting (2024.08.01).
Source: https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-decision-168
Market Technical and Sentiment Analysis
Sentiment Analysis Composition
Technical Indicators
Price Trend
Over the past week, BTC prices have fallen by 2.85%, while ETH prices have risen by 1.26%.
The chart above shows the price trend of BTC over the past week.
The chart above shows the price trend of ETH over the past week.
The table displays the price changes over the past week.
Price-Volume Distribution (Support and Resistance)
Over the past week, BTC and ETH have been oscillating in a narrow range within the dense trading zone.
The chart above shows the distribution of dense trading zones for BTC over the past week.
The chart above shows the distribution of dense trading zones for ETH over the past week.
The table displays the dense trading zones for BTC and ETH on a weekly basis.
Trading Volume and Open Interest
On June 18th, when BTC and ETH prices fell, the trading volume for BTC was the highest, while the open interest for BTC decreased slightly and the open interest for ETH increased slightly.
The top portion of the chart shows the price trend for BTC, the middle portion displays the trading volume, and the bottom portion shows the open interest. The light blue represents the 1-day average, while the orange represents the 7-day average. The color of the candlestick represents the current state, with green indicating price increase with volume support, red indicating liquidation, yellow indicating slow accumulation of positions, and black indicating congestion.
The top portion of the chart shows the price trend for ETH, the middle portion displays the trading volume, and the bottom portion shows the open interest. The light blue represents the 1-day average, while the orange represents the 7-day average. The color of the candlestick represents the current state, with green indicating price increase with volume support, red indicating liquidation, yellow indicating slow accumulation of positions, and black indicating congestion.
Historical Volatility and Implied Volatility
The historical volatility for BTC and ETH reached its highest point when they experienced a decline on June 14th, while the implied volatility for BTC and ETH both rose compared to the beginning of the week.
The yellow line represents historical volatility, the blue line represents implied volatility, and the red dots represent the 7-day average.
Event-Driven
There was no data released in the past week.
Sentiment Indicators
Momentum Sentiment
Among Bitcoin, Gold, Nasdaq, Hang Seng, and Shanghai-Shenzhen 300, gold showed the strongest momentum, while Bitcoin performed the worst over the past week.
The chart above shows the performance of different assets over the past week.
Lending Rates and Borrowing Sentiment
The average annualized lending yield for USD over the past week was 10.8%, with short-term rates rising to around 12.6%.
The yellow line represents the highest price for USD rates, the blue line represents 75% of the highest price, and the red line represents the 7-day average of 75% of the highest price.
The table displays the average returns for different holding periods of USD rates.
Funding Rates and Contract Leverage Sentiment
The average annualized funding yield for BTC over the past week was 9.6%, and the contract leverage sentiment returned to a low level.
The blue line represents the funding rate for BTC on Binance, and the red line represents the 7-day average.
The table displays the average returns for different holding periods of BTC funding rates.
Market Correlation and Consistency Sentiment
Among the selected 129 coins in the past week, the correlation remained around 0.88, and the consistency between different varieties remained at a high level.
The blue line represents the Bitcoin price, and the green line represents the correlation of different coins [‘1000 floki’, ‘1000 lunc’, ‘1000 pepe’, ‘1000 shib’, ‘100 0x ec’, ‘1inch’, ‘aave’, ‘ada’, ‘agix’, ‘algo’, ‘ankr’, ‘ant’, ‘ape’, ‘apt’, ‘arb’, ‘ar’, ‘astr’, ‘atom’, ‘audio’, ‘avax’, ‘axs’, ‘bal’, ‘band’, ‘bat’, ‘bch’, ‘bigtime’, ‘blur’, ‘bnb’, ‘btc’, ‘celo’, ‘cfx’, ‘chz’, ‘ckb’, ‘comp’, ‘crv’, ‘cvx’, ‘cyber’, ‘dash’, ‘doge’, ‘dot’, ‘dydx’, ‘egld’, ‘enj’, ‘ens’, ‘eos’,’etc’, ‘eth’, ‘fet’, ‘fil’, ‘flow’, ‘ftm’, ‘fxs’, ‘gala’, ‘gmt’, ‘gmx’, ‘grt’, ‘hbar’, ‘hot’, ‘icp’, ‘icx’, ‘imx’, ‘inj’, ‘iost’, ‘iotx’, ‘jasmy’, ‘kava’, ‘klay’, ‘ksm’, ‘ldo’, ‘link’, ‘loom’, ‘lpt’, ‘lqty’, ‘lrc’, ‘ltc’, ‘luna 2’, ‘magic’, ‘mana’, ‘matic’, ‘meme’, ‘mina’, ‘mkr’, ‘near’, ‘neo’, ‘ocean’, ‘one’, ‘ont’, ‘op’, ‘pendle’, ‘qnt’, ‘qtum’, ‘rndr’, ‘rose’, ‘rune’, ‘rvn’, ‘sand’, ‘sei’, ‘sfp’, ‘skl’, ‘snx’, ‘sol’, ‘ssv’, ‘stg’, ‘storj’, ‘stx’, ‘sui’, ‘sushi’, ‘sxp’, ‘theta’, ‘tia’, ‘trx’, ‘t’, ‘uma’, ‘uni’, ‘vet’, ‘waves’, ‘wld’, ‘woo’, ‘xem’, ‘xlm’, ‘xmr’, ‘xrp’, ‘xtz’, ‘yfi’, ‘zec’, ‘zen’, ‘zil’, ‘zrx’].
Market Breadth and Overall Sentiment
Among the selected 129 coins, the proportion of coins trading above the 30-day moving average was 4%, while the proportion of BTC trading above the 30-day moving average was 8.6%. The proportion of coins that were more than 20% above the lowest price in the past 30 days was 2.4%, and the proportion of coins that were less than 10% below the highest price in the past 30 days was 4.7%. The market breadth indicator over the past week shows that the overall market has been in a continuous downtrend for most coins.
The chart above shows the proportions of different breadth indicators for the past 30 days for [‘bnb’, ‘btc’, ‘sol’, ‘eth’, ‘1000 floki’, ‘1000 lunc’, ‘1000 pepe’, ‘1000 sats’, ‘1000 shib’, ‘100 0x ec’, ‘1inch’, ‘aave’, ‘ada’, ‘agix’, ‘ai’, ‘algo’, ‘alt’, ‘ankr’, ‘ape’, ‘apt’, ‘arb’, ‘ar’, ‘astr’, ‘atom’, ‘avax’, ‘axs’, ‘bal’, ‘band’, ‘bat’, ‘bch’, ‘bigtime’, ‘blur’, ‘cake’, ‘celo’, ‘cfx’, ‘chz’, ‘ckb’, ‘comp’, ‘crv’, ‘cvx’, ‘cyber’, ‘dash’, ‘doge’, ‘dot’, ‘dydx’, ‘egld’, ‘enj’, ‘ens’, ‘eos’,’etc’, ‘fet’, ‘fil’, ‘flow’, ‘ftm’, ‘fxs’, ‘gala’, ‘gmt’, ‘gmx’, ‘grt’, ‘hbar’, ‘hot’, ‘icp’, ‘icx’, ‘idu’, ‘imx’, ‘inj’, ‘iost’, ‘iotx’, ‘jasmy’, ‘jto’, ‘jup’, ‘kava’, ‘klay’, ‘ksm’, ‘ldo’, ‘link’, ‘loom’, ‘lpt’, ‘lqty’, ‘lrc’, ‘ltc’, ‘luna 2’, ‘magic’, ‘mana’, ‘manta’, ‘mask’, ‘matic’, ‘meme’, ‘mina’, ‘mkr’, ‘near’, ‘neo’, ‘nfp’, ‘ocean’, ‘one’, ‘ont’, ‘op’, ‘ordi’, ‘pendle’, ‘pyth’, ‘qnt’, ‘qtum’, ‘rndr’, ‘robin’, ‘rose’, ‘rune’, ‘rvn’, ‘sand’, ‘sei’, ‘sfp’, ‘skl’, ‘snx’, ‘ssv’, ‘stg’, ‘storj’, ‘stx’, ‘sui’, ‘sushi’, ‘sxp’, ‘theta’, ‘tia’, ‘trx’, ‘t’, ‘uma’, ‘uni’, ‘vet’, ‘waves’, ‘wif’, ‘wld’, ‘woo’,’xai’, ‘xem’, ‘xlm’, ‘xmr’, ‘xrp’, ‘xtz’, ‘yfi’, ‘zec’, ‘zen’, ‘zil’, ‘zrx’].
In summary, over the past week, both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) experienced significant oscillations and declines, reaching the highest point of volatility on June 18th. At the same time, the trading volume for these two cryptocurrencies also reached its highest level during the decline on June 18th. The open interest for Bitcoin decreased slightly, while the open interest for Ethereum increased slightly. Additionally, both cryptocurrencies saw a small increase in implied volatility. Furthermore, Bitcoin’s funding rate dropped to a low level, which may reflect a decrease in market participants’ leverage sentiment towards Bitcoin. Moreover, the market breadth indicator shows a continuous downtrend for most coins, indicating a generally weak market trend over the past week.
