Is the historically most challenging Bitcoin bull market coming to an end

Recently, the cryptocurrency market has been unpredictable, and many people have started to view it as a strange bull market where nobody can make money. Some even complain that this is the most difficult bull market in Bitcoin’s history. As a result, those who always believed that everything looked promising during a bull market and that every project seemed flawed during a bear market began to doubt their life choices and the value of the entire cryptocurrency industry, thinking that the bull market was coming to an end… 01. It’s always difficult to make money in a bull market
Although this bull market is peculiar, after experiencing so many bull markets, it should no longer come as a surprise. This point was analyzed in the previous article “Bitcoin Bull Market Logic Suddenly Changes, Why Can’t Many People Make Money?” In fact, it’s not that people can’t make money in this bull market, but making money in every bull market has never been easy. It should be noted that most of the people who made money in the past few rounds did not enter the market during the bull market. Those who smelled the opportunity to make money in the bull market only realized it later, as they were the ones providing the money that others made. The real winners are those who can navigate the bull and bear markets unscathed. In the ups and downs of Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market over the years, many famous prospectors have emerged. People like SBF, a genius trader from Wall Street, and Do Kwon, known as the “Korean Musk,” have all been defeated in the cryptocurrency market. The lessons they have learned are quite simple: apart from being impatient and not fearing risks, the most important thing is the “cryptocurrency value system” they hold. Many traders, including those represented by SBF, have always touted themselves as “smart people” entering the cryptocurrency market, perhaps not because they recognize the value brought by Bitcoin and cryptocurrency assets, but because they believe there are many “fools” to take advantage of here. They entered this market with the idea of buying Bitcoin at a low price and selling it to fools, which was the prevailing concept for a while. But what they didn’t expect was that they could never escape the fate of “big fish eating small fish” in this highly free market. In any industry, those who enter with the mentality of “cutting leeks” without pursuing the correct values of the industry and not recognizing the industry’s value are destined to not do well in this profession. Even if they initially taste the sweetness, they will soon be swallowed up by the market. Perhaps many people have forgotten the original intention of Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency industry, and distorted values may lead to serious misjudgments in the end. 02. What’s wrong with value projects?
In this bull market, it is obvious that many “value projects” favored by venture capitalists and the old-school cryptocurrency value projects that have been under construction in the cryptocurrency market, including Ethereum, Layer2, Metaverse, DeFi, etc., seem to have not gained market recognition. Instead, people seem more willing to participate in NFTs and Memes, which forces us to reflect on what went wrong with all these years of “cryptocurrency value projects.” In fact, we should not blame the market for not accepting value projects, but rather that the “value projects” themselves have problems. Recently, we have observed that the Ethereum GAS price has even dropped to 1, and some Layer2, Metaverse, DeFi projects that have not attracted much activity and newly listed VC projects have skyrocketed in market capitalization to several billion or even tens of billions. With such poor data and such high market capitalization, it gives people a strong sense of an overestimated bubble. Of course, no one is willing to buy in at such a high price. It is better to invest in low market capitalization Memes and reject various pump-and-dump schemes. For a long time, many people have focused too much on the surface and ignored the underlying fundamental reasons. In fact, it’s not that value projects no longer have value. The valuation of many value projects is not solely based on active users, as they carry billions or even hundreds of billions of TVL (Total Value Locked) behind them, and this amount of funds cannot be ignored. Of course, the most important point is the prevalence of “yield farming” in recent years, which has not only bred a large number of fake users but also made it difficult for new VC projects to be valued and difficult for them to focus on their work. This has become a problem for the entire Web3 industry, as a large amount of fake traffic and users have to some extent hijacked these projects. Some organizations even customize highly tailored projects to deceive VCs, creating seemingly star-studded teams and “value projects” for “yield farming” enthusiasts. No one cares about technology, and no one cares whether it solves real needs and problems. These value-oriented VC projects can be imagined as being short-lived, as they are designed to make a quick profit. As a result, people have discovered that impurities have been mixed into both new and old “value projects,” and even a single rat dropping can spoil a whole pot of porridge, let alone when it becomes a widespread phenomenon… Therefore, since it is unclear whether there is any value in these projects, it is best not to invest and wait for better opportunities. Nevertheless, we should not completely negate the projects that adhere to the original values of the cryptocurrency industry. Bitcoin has brought transparency to assets and achieved self-custody, making personal property sacred and inviolable. Ethereum, along with Layer2 and other smart contract platforms, has brought a “trusted” operating environment for internet applications, pushing the internet from the online world to the on-chain world… After going through trials and tribulations, I believe they can still stand tall in the cryptocurrency market and continue to rectify themselves. 03. The logic of the bull market has changed, but it hasn’t
The logic of the bull market may have changed, but it hasn’t really changed. All along, most altcoins were just recipients of the value overflow from Bitcoin’s rise. Once the price of Bitcoin enters a high range, it is difficult for many new narrative-driven, low-market-cap altcoins to rise. People discovered that many low-value, small altcoins seemed like “value traps” and “FOMO wells” under the influence of FOMO sentiment. Due to the small size of these pools, only a small amount of capital is needed to achieve several times or even dozens of times the increase. People gradually realized this logic of the bull market. However, this year, besides various new and old altcoins, Meme projects have blossomed, and the market has found that FOMO sentiment can also be harnessed and contained. Since FOMO sentiment can be directly channeled into Memes, why waste energy in those “altcoin traps” that are filled with various “rat droppings” and are prepared for retail investors? As a result, Memes directly diverted the funds that should have flowed into altcoins, changing the logic of the bull market, but also remaining the same, with a new circle of Meme pools appearing alongside the altcoin pools to absorb the overflow of funds from Bitcoin. 04. Did the bull market end? Most people may have lost their way


Many people are caught in confusion and contradictions about whether the bull market has ended, whether there is a “shitcoin bull,” etc. But what I want to say is, since we have long known that for most people, “bull markets don’t necessarily make money, and bear markets don’t necessarily mean losing money,” why do we care so much about whether it’s a bull market or not?

Taking history as a guide, let’s take a look at the trend of gold over the past 100 years. You will find that Bitcoin, this digital gold, and gold have many similarities on the price chart, apart from some similar properties: 1) If we extend the timeline, the early price movements almost turn into a straight line regardless of bull or bear markets. 2) The prices are volatile, with cycles, but always maintain a long-term upward spiral channel. Therefore, we can easily draw a probable conclusion that, like gold, the best long-term strategy for Bitcoin would always be to buy on dips within a 100-year timeframe.

The trend of gold is positively correlated with the scale of US government debt
Led by the United States, the world has long entered a path of creating huge debts through money printing, and the only way to resolve the continuously rising debt is to continue printing money… 05. Conclusion
Recently, factors such as the debt settlement in Mentougou and government sell-offs have brought significant negative impacts to the market. However, the positive side is that the “Sword of Damocles” hanging over the cryptocurrency market has also disappeared. If we extend the timeline, the bull will always be there. Therefore, there is no need to worry at all. We just need to quietly hold on to the original values of cryptocurrency and patiently embrace the new era.