Since the May Day holiday, Bitcoin has experienced a large-scale sell-off, with prices dropping from around $63,000 to $56,000 at one point, marking a decrease of over 9% in a single day. However, on May 4th, Bitcoin quickly rebounded, with prices approaching $65,000 and experiencing an intra-day increase of 9.3%.
In contrast to the extreme volatility of Bitcoin, altcoins have suffered heavy losses and displayed weak rebounds, and major communities are no longer as lively as they were a few months ago. Has Bitcoin reached its peak? Has the bull market come to an end? What opportunities are there for ordinary people?
To discuss these topics, Blockchain invited several Crypto KOLs to share their insights. The guest speakers include:
– Dashuo (@ruyan768), HashGlobal technical advisor and CreatorDAO founder
– Laobai (@Wuhuoqiu), ABCDE investment research partner and Amber Group research advisor
– Natalie (@0xnatalie860), ChainFeeds researcher
– Phyrex (@Phyrex_Ni), cryptocurrency researcher
(Note: The ranking is not in any particular order, but listed alphabetically.)
1. With the recent market downturn, some people believe that the bull market has come to an end. What are your thoughts on this?
Dashuo: The bull market for BTC may have entered halftime, but the bull market for Web3 has not yet started. Each bull market comes with a lot of pessimism.
Laobai: It’s impossible. The macroeconomic interest rate cut is just around the corner (within the next 6-10 months). The Bitcoin market has just surpassed its previous high, so it is unlikely that the bull market will end now.
Natalie: Due to Bitcoin’s sideways movement and the lack of an explosive narrative, the recent market has almost lost its wealth effect, which has gradually eroded people’s confidence in the market. I have always believed that no one can accurately predict the market cycle, and a sideways consolidation phase before the next trend does not necessarily mean the end of the bull market. I remain optimistic about the future.
Phyrex: Based on historical trends, it is likely that the bull market has not ended yet, or the real bull market might not have started yet. In the past, the major surge usually occurred during the halving cycle. Although the BTC spot ETF ignited the market prematurely, the US presidential election at the end of the year and the implementation of FASB will still provide liquidity support.
2. How is this market cycle different from previous cycles? What are the influencing factors, in your opinion?
Dashuo: The biggest difference is not the capital and narratives, but the mentality of old investors. They may miss out on the new narratives.
Laobai: There is too little 0-1 innovation and too much incremental innovation. Each project has a valuation of tens of billions of dollars. The retail investors cannot keep up, and there is no longer any money-making effect.
Natalie: Each market cycle has its own unique trends and dynamics. Simply comparing the current situation with past patterns is not comprehensive enough. The inflow and outflow of Bitcoin ETFs this year has significantly affected market sentiment and capital flow. Policy factors and macroeconomic factors are still important influencing factors. For the cryptocurrency ecosystem, I believe that the changes in the Bitcoin ecosystem may become a transformative factor in this market cycle.
Phyrex: The biggest difference in this market cycle is the launch of the BTC spot ETF, which not only boosted everyone’s confidence but also resulted in a net purchase of over 530,000 BTC within four months. This significantly reduced the selling pressure in the market.
3. In the next development stage of this market cycle, such as this year, one year later, five years later, and ten years later, what sectors and narratives do you see as promising?
Dashuo: I am optimistic about the RWA, AI, social networking, meme, and gaming sectors. The RWA in this round is driven by top institutions. The on-chainization of US bonds is just the beginning, and the scale and variety of traditional assets on the blockchain will increase significantly within 1-2 years. AI will inevitably need to be decentralized, as it affects the fate of humanity, and everyone is aware of this. Meme is a key adoption factor for Web3. Although no one understands Web3 technology, everyone has their favorite memes. In the previous bull market, Opensea allowed many creators to make a lot of money, and this round, Pumpfun has made creative memes that generate emotional value more valuable. This is something that Web2 cannot achieve. With Memecoins, people can collaborate on a large scale with more strangers on the internet.
Laobai: AI, Bitcoin, and gaming.
Natalie: Based on macro impacts and internal ecosystem development, I see potential in AI, intent narratives, chain abstractions, and Bitcoin infrastructure.
Phyrex: In this market cycle, I still have confidence in the DeFi and RWA sectors. However, there are still very few compliant projects that primarily focus on 2A and 3A securities (bonds). Currently, only BlackRock is involved. But with the progress of stablecoin legislation and the improvement of US regulations on the cryptocurrency market, RWA is likely to be the next shining star.
4. How do you view Ethereum’s performance in the future?
Dashuo: With the active launch of Coinbase’s BaseChain, Ethereum will successfully validate the development path of Layer 2 solutions. This year or next year, more enterprises will establish their own Layer 2 solutions, which I believe is more important than an ETH ETF. Ethereum will experience an independent market surge when most people are bearish, provided that Layer 2s pass the initial validation or at least one AVS (Arbitrum, Optimism, etc.) reaches a market cap of $3 billion.
Laobai: Ethereum is neither too hot nor too cold. Unless an ETF is approved and attracts external funds, the current narratives in the Ethereum community are not worth hyping.
Natalie: Although there are often discussions about “XX flipping Ethereum” and Ethereum’s recent decline in transaction volume, Ethereum still holds an unshakable position in the market and remains the focus of attention. It is the starting point for long-term successful narratives. Discussions within the Ethereum community are still active, with various interesting ideas emerging. Recently, I have noticed more discussions on topics such as Based rollup, ePBS, and various account abstractions proposed in Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs).
Phyrex: It’s hard to say about ETH. The correct view now depends on whether the spot ETF is approved. Moreover, if the SEC determines that ETH is a security, there may be many subsequent troubles. However, this may not necessarily happen in the short term. If we simply look at the exchange rate between ETH and BTC, ETH still has a chance.
5. The current market environment is becoming increasingly unfriendly for ordinary people, especially newcomers, with many pitfalls. What advice do you have for newbies?
Dashuo: Stay away from noise, reduce your time on Twitter, and rely on Farcaster as your primary source of information.
Laobai: The statement that the market is becoming increasingly unfriendly is made every year. It is a sign of a maturing market, just like the stock market. For newcomers, either invest in BTC and ETH for the long term or devote yourself to research and become an “expert.”
Phyrex: Dollar-cost averaging. Don’t add any strategies or leverage. Stick to a four-year cycle of dollar-cost averaging into BTC and hope for good returns.
Natalie: For beginners, I suggest first gaining a solid understanding of the basic concepts. With the market sentiment relatively calm and less FOMO at present, it is an excellent time for learning. Take advantage of the low gas fees to familiarize yourself with on-chain operations and explore various DeFi strategies.
6. What are your expectations for the future development of the cryptocurrency market, such as this year, one year later, five years later, and ten years later?
Dashuo: I can summarize my expectations for the future with a quote from the founder of Coinbase: “Onchain is the new online.”
Laobai: The market has been in turmoil for 10 years, but fundamentally, it has not made much progress beyond BTC. Narratives come and go, and bubbles burst one after another. My expectation (or hope) is that in 3-5 years, breakthroughs will be made in DeFi, gaming, decentralized privacy, and AI, creating real business value rather than relying purely on market speculation.
Natalie: People often overestimate the short-term impact of technology and underestimate its long-term effects. Short-term market changes are unpredictable, but since I entered the industry, I have always maintained an optimistic attitude towards the long-term development of blockchain. In the future, I expect to see more innovative applications focusing on frictionless experiences and lower entry barriers across multiple chains.
Phyrex: In the short term, the Fed does not plan to cut interest rates, which means the liquidity injection will be postponed. It is likely to happen in 2025 and 2026 when interest rates reach their lowest point and liquidity injection occurs.
