EMC Labs Bitcoin Weekly Observation Building Momentum Waiting for Rate Cut Breakthrough

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BTC continues to accumulate chips between 66,000 and 70,000, market breakthrough may only require clear interest rate cut expectations
Market in a week
Last week, BTC once approached the historical high of 73,000 US dollars, reaching a peak of 71,974 US dollars. It eventually ended the rapid adjustment at the high point and closed above 69,000 US dollars. The weekly volatility was only 6.5%, with a 2.8% increase.
The failure to break through is still closely related to U.S. economic data. The U.S. non-farm data released on June 8 showed an unexpected increase in employment, adding more uncertainty to rate cut expectations. However, it must be pointed out that the U.S. unemployment rate also unexpectedly increased, indicating that the signal of economic recession in the U.S. is still clear. There are also reports indicating that most of the new jobs in the U.S. are taken up by immigrants and illegal immigrants, and actual U.S. data is not optimistic.
In any case, the market is still waiting for the other shoe to drop. The Federal Reserve interest rate meeting held on June 12 will provide further signals. We believe that there is still a high probability of a rate cut before September.
Before that, the crypto market may react in advance 1-2 months. On June 4, the U.S. Fidelity ETF, which has always ranked second in fund inflows, saw a daily inflow of 800 million US dollars, which also indirectly indicated some intentions of mainstream U.S. institutions.
Supply and demand structure
Last week, we pointed out that through on-chain data, the range of 60,000 to 73,000 US dollars has become the largest accumulation range of BTC chips, totaling approximately 3 million coins. Currently, this accumulation range has been further clarified to be between 66,000 and 70,000 US dollars. In this range, there is an accumulation of 2.43 million chips. This range can be seen as a strong support level.
On June 4, the net inflow of U.S. ETFs was 887 million US dollars, marking the second largest net inflow day since January; last week, the overall net inflow of U.S. ETFs was 1.829 billion US dollars, the largest net inflow week since March. The net inflow of Hong Kong BTC spot ETF was about 42 million US dollars last week, with a total of 290 million US dollars, similar to the scale at the end of April.
In terms of the inflow of U.S. dollar stablecoins, it has continued to remain relatively stable over the past month, with a net inflow of 270 million US dollars. It is far from the extremely high net inflows seen in March and April. Overall, the current total assets of stablecoins are 150.5 billion US dollars, not far from the 162 billion US dollars of the last bull market. If we consider the net inflow of U.S. ETFs of about 15 billion US dollars, the overall figure has already surpassed the last bull market.
However, for this bull market to truly break through, stablecoins still need to increase further.
As of May 26, the amount of coins held by centralized exchanges was 2.31 million coins, a decrease of 20,000 coins from last week. At the same time, the amount of coins held by short-term investors holding for less than 5 months was 3.32 million coins, an increase of 10,000 coins from last week; while the amount held by long-term investors holding for over 5 months was 14.1 million coins, an increase of 14,000 coins; overall, the market shows a continuous accumulation of chips, with short-term and long-term investors acting in the same direction.
In terms of market costs, the cost for short-term investors has further risen to 63,500 US dollars, with a floating profit of about 9%. This profit is at a relatively low level in the bull market, and there is very limited short-term selling pressure. On the other hand, the average holding cost of U.S. spot ETFs has also slightly increased to 58,287 US dollars, with a profit margin of about 19%.
In terms of buying volume on centralized exchanges, it increased from 3.6 billion US dollars two weeks ago to 5.6 billion US dollars.
EMC BTC Cycle Indicator
According to eMerge data engine, the market is in the acceleration phase of the bull market, with the EMC BTC Cycle indicator strength at 0.63.
About EMC Labs
EMC Labs (Emerging Labs) was founded by crypto asset investors and data scientists in April 2023. It focuses on blockchain industry research and Crypto secondary market investments, with industry foresight, insights, and data mining as its core competencies, committed to participating in the flourishing blockchain industry through research and investment, and promoting blockchain and crypto assets to bring prosperity to humanity.
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