Author: Jaleel, BlockBeats
The two hottest meme assets in the Bitcoin ecosystem recently are none other than DOG and Pizza.
With Bitcoin once again rising to $71,000, the market sentiment has clearly improved, and the Bitcoin ecosystem is once again bustling. Starting in June, on-chain Gas fees for Bitcoin have seen a noticeable increase.
The overall market value of the Runes ecosystem has doubled, rising from one billion to two billion dollars. Undoubtedly, the leading asset DOG•GO•TO•THE•MOON (referred to as Dog) has been consistently hitting new highs. Each airdrop of Dog, which was previously airdropped due to holding Runes, is now valued at over $8,000.
Looking at the BRC20 tokens, while there hasn’t been a staggering rise like Dog, Ordi and Sats have also seen varying degrees of growth. Additionally, popular assets like Pizza have emerged among the five-character tokens, with Unisat set to complete an airdrop within 48 hours.
This indicates that the Bitcoin ecosystem is about to undergo a “reshuffling,” with dogs and pizzas visibly dominating the scene.
“In the past six months, the hottest runes”
“I already have nearly 10 out-of-group trading groups for Pizza on WeChat,” revealed BlockBeats from a friend.
On May 22nd, the fourteenth Bitcoin Pizza Day in the cryptocurrency community, Unisat announced the airdrop of the “Pizza” rune to eligible user wallets. According to the application page, addresses that had interacted with Unisat services within the last three months, held over 500 Unisat points, interacted with the brc 20-swap module, and held a Unisat OG Pass were all eligible to receive the rune.
As of the latest information available, all Pizzas have been engraved and are currently being distributed. At the time of writing, according to the OKX Web3 wallet, the floor price of Pizza is $4.17.
Reflecting on the early days of Bitcoin runes in 2023, the infrastructure was lagging behind. Apart from Unisat, the community had to resort to OTC off-exchange traders for trading runes.
Today, the infrastructure has greatly improved, allowing most assets to be traded on the market. For some OTC investors, observing off-exchange price trends and trading volumes is crucial to gauge the asset’s market heat.
“I’ve been in the off-exchange market for six months now, and the trading volume for Pizza has already surpassed any other rune project I’ve worked on, several times over,” said Xiao Zhi to BlockBeats.
“The warm spring water knows the duck first,” OTC traders, like having a God’s-eye view, can see almost all buy and sell orders in the market. Their perception of the market is both quick and profound.
“I vividly remember that on May 26th, my off-exchange Pizza trading volume at home exceeded $100,000,” Xiao Zhi recalled.
But there is only one piece of the cake; once one trader finishes, others cannot. Reporting competitors to WeChat is a ruthless move in the off-exchange trading market. On May 27th, early in the morning, Xiao Zhi’s several WeChat accounts and groups were all blocked, and the trading orders flowed to multiple off-exchange buyers. “After that day, the trading volume of other traders suddenly surged, and I can confirm this,” Xiao Zhi said.
We speculate that after a week of heat fermentation, the total daily trading volume of multiple off-exchange traders in the market should reach $200,000.
“Whether this thing can be replicated like ORDI, I don’t know, but one thing I can be very sure of is that my buyers and trading orders have been consistently increasing, with prices rising from $0.3 each to the highest trading price of $3.8,” Xiao Zhi said.
The “conspiracy” of market manipulation?
After much preparation and investment, is the Pizza rune part of Unisat’s conspiracy?
The Pizza rune was minted on March 31st, but it wasn’t until around May 20th that the public became aware of it. “With such a lengthy operation in between, there must be promoters behind the scenes collaborating. Whether it’s traders or project teams, everyone in the cryptocurrency community is here to make money rather than for charity,” Xiao Zhi said.
In addition, according to Pan Pan, the creator of the BRC 20 Chinese community, the airdrop cost of Pizza was approximately $2 million. This amount far exceeds the airdrop cost of runes and serves as a basis for some users supporting the belief that “Pizza has a market manipulation scheme behind it.”
Many believe that the second dragon of the Bitcoin ecosystem, Sats, has significant influence from the Unisat team. With their involvement, even when Ordi was firmly at the top of the market, Sats still managed to make waves. At the time, many Sats community members even challenged Ordi directly, claiming that Sats was the top asset in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
“The operational logic of traditional finance in Web2 has been directly copied to web3. Traditional traders hold a morning meeting every day, discussing the price range and fluctuations of stocks, whether to boost prices, and where to set the highest, lowest, and closing prices. They have a strong market control capability,” Xiao Zhi, who also has a traditional finance background, said before doing OTC.
“So Web3 operates in the same way, with each step carefully planned and calculated, just like Fan Xian in the Chinese drama ‘Joy of Life,’ where every action is meticulously designed and interconnected,” Xiao Zhi added.
Moreover, from a certain perspective, Pizza has a much larger narrative space compared to Sats. Xiao Zhi also agrees, highlighting Pizza’s exceptional narrative ability to spark imagination. “The first Bitcoin transaction was to buy a pizza; this is an evergreen story, and the pizza holiday is now firmly established.”
“Issue,” Unisat’s breakthrough solution
While some communities believe Pizza is part of Unisat’s conspiracy, the data suggests that it might be Unisat’s desperate breakthrough solution, given Unisat’s current situation.
According to the latest data from GeniiData’s Order Book feature, Magic Eden holds 53.81% of the order book percentage on the Runes token, OKX Web3 Wallet holds 37.75%, while Unisat only has 8.44%.
In terms of trading volume in the Runes market, Magic Eden’s trading volume in the past 24 hours is almost ten times that of Unisat.
According to GeniiData’s founder, Coco, Pizza can help Unisat gain more attention. In the highly competitive market environment, this is one of the quickest ways to attract market attention.
She believes that Unisat has a strong user base and will not leave the BTC ecosystem in the short term. Unisat aims to continue developing with these user groups, so Unisat founder Lorenzo must have his considerations and plans.
“Therefore, the Pizza project definitely has its operational purposes. Conversely, by providing more value to users, the prices of related assets will naturally improve,” Coco explained.
At the same time, combining the latest news, Gate will list the BRC 20 token PIZZA, which seems to confirm Unisat’s long-term strategy.
Of course, some community members are skeptical about Pizza’s future trend. Some seasoned off-exchange traders believe that the trading market today is vastly different from earlier stages and cannot be compared.
“What was the situation in the early stages of rune market rallies? It was indeed challenging, but now, I can handle it by myself. The rune market has already blossomed,” said an anonymous off-exchange trader to BlockBeats.
Therefore, for another group of traders and community members, the reference value of off-exchange trading volume is limited, and the opening situation is crucial.
They believe that Pizza’s trend will be a one-way street, with a possible opening drop, followed by a possible manipulation by market makers, but the final outcome should be a one-way street. Since the Unisat team is still in China and not engaging in massive promotion, it is easy to predict the outcome of Pizza based on this.
“I always feel like Pizza is benchmarking Sats, but it would be qualified to say so once it is listed on a trading platform,” the anonymous off-exchange trader analyzed. “Of course, if Pizza can be listed on Binance, that would be a different story, but I don’t think Binance has a reason to list Pizza.”
Is Dog going to get listed?
In the cryptocurrency community, we often say a coin is “To the moon” and “Still early” to indicate a bullish sentiment, but in essence, this translates to “getting listed on Binance.”
“Dog is going to get listed” has almost become the most widely circulated phrase in the Bitcoin community recently, with everyone believing that Dog will be listed on Binance. Before discussing this possibility, we need to understand some more macro-level content, such as the overall trends of Runes and BRC 20 tokens.
Is Runes going to “kill” BRC 20?
Firstly, the total market value of Runes is close to that of BRC 20 tokens. Runes has a market value of $220 million, while BRC 20 tokens have a market value of $269 million. In terms of the number of holders, BRC 20 has 650,000 holders, while Runes has approximately 570,000 holders.
Data Source: GeniiData
In the past 24 hours of Bitcoin trading distribution, Runes accounted for 63.99% of the trades, Ordinals 28.24%, and other trades 7.77%. Clearly, Runes is the dominant player.
Currently, Runes has minted a total fee of 1,832 BTC, with a total minted amount of 16,973,200, 318,796 minters, and 579,417 holders. These data demonstrate Runes’ significant trading volume and participation in the Bitcoin ecosystem, indicating a substantial user base and trading activities for Runes in recent times. In terms of data, time, development speed, and tools, Runes is currently at its peak.
Data Source: GeniiData
Will Runes make BRC 20 tokens disappear altogether? In the article “From BRC 20 to Runes, the great migration of the Bitcoin casino,” we have already discussed some related content, such as the top BRC 20 tokens like Ordi and Sats not being significantly affected, but Runes will undoubtedly have a significant impact on medium and small BRC 20 tokens.
During the communication with GeniiData, Coco also expressed her views from her perspective: “The cryptocurrency market has a cyclical problem. Each new protocol or project has its unique life cycle, which may be divided into several stages.”
In her view, the current trend is not in favor of BRC 20 tokens, but this does not mean that BRC 20 tokens have lost their user base. From the perspective of infrastructure and market attention, BRC 20 tokens still have their place. Founder Domo has not completely left the market but continues to invest in and build infrastructure and applications related to Ordinal.
“The cryptocurrency market is an attention economy. As long as there is attention, there will be capital flow and market heat. Currently, Runes is at the forefront, making it challenging for other projects to surpass it. But this does not mean that other projects have no chance. The future trend of the BTC ecosystem and the richness of Layer 2 still remain high, so I don’t believe that BRC 20 tokens have completely lost their market,” Coco said.
Getting listed – the goal of all communities
Returning to the previous question, can Dog actually get listed?
From the data perspective, Dog’s current market value has reached $900 million, close to surpassing Ordi’s current $1.1 billion market value. Achieving this market cap before listing on Binance is already quite remarkable, which is why the market and community have high expectations for Dog to get listed on Binance.
“Regarding listing, it can be clarified that there are various standards for listing, but they must include the influence and user base of the token, as well as reaching a certain level of liquidity. Some exchanges will take notice once these conditions are met,” Coco stated.
Dog has a strong breakout effect, spreading not only within the crypto community but also attracting attention on platforms like TikTok and YouTube. From this perspective, the possibility of listing Dog is not unfounded, but ultimately depends on the considerations of the trading platform.
While many native Bitcoin users do not see Dog as having the cultural attributes of Bitcoin like Pizza, Xiao Zhi believes this is the key to Dog’s ability to break through. “The three letters DOG have very high value.”
“Many projects rely on celebrities for recognition. From a Musk tweet causing Dogecoin to surge, to Shen Teng mentioning the ‘Dog King’ on a TV show, each time, there was a significant impact. Now, the meme DOG has proven its strength in the crypto community over the years,” Xiao Zhi explained.
From Coco’s perspective, Runes has also done an excellent job in their promotion, frequently participating in various activities, including cross-border events. Leonidas’ “24-hour surfing speed” is also a key factor in Dog’s success, with his frequent interactions on Twitter. Moreover, from the early airdrop concept, Runes aligns with the Ordinal culture, embodying the original spirit of the Bitcoin ecosystem. Most of their airdrop addresses are targeted at active addresses, capturing key players in the crypto community.
“This is crucial. Many things in the crypto industry do not need to reach everyone. As long as you capture a small group of key players, you can have a significant influence,” Coco emphasized.
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