EMC Labs Bitcoin Weekly Observations: ETH Approved Expectations and BTC Slowly Rebounding Amid US Election Hype

Article Summary:
Last week, BTC continued its rebound trend, reaching a high of $71,979 and a low of $66,060. The rebound was mainly driven by the limited approval of the SEC for the ETH spot ETF. The approval and listing are expected to take 1-2 months. The US macro climate has become favorable for cryptocurrencies due to the passing of the FIT 21 bill and Trump’s positive stance on the industry. BTC remains relatively weak, with signs of capital moving from BTC to ETH as the ETH/BTC trading pair rebounds by 20% and trading volume increases 4 times. The Federal Reserve’s dovish and hawkish stance on interest rates continues to impact BTC. The current bull market shows similarities to the 2017 trajectory, with gradual upward movement and consolidation at high levels. The $60,000-$73,000 range has become a major accumulation zone for BTC, providing strong support for further price increases. The inflow of US ETFs has reached $1.055 billion. The inflow of stablecoins decreased slightly by $30 million, mainly due to the outflow of USDC. USDT saw a net inflow of $606 million. As of May 26, centralized exchanges held 2.329 million BTC, indicating a slight increase in short-term supply. Short-term investors who held BTC for less than 5 months saw their on-chain profits rise to 12%. BTC shows low correlation with other major assets and a strong negative correlation with the US dollar. The market remains in an overall upward trend until the strongest US rate cut expectations are met. However, the approval of ETH ETF and the competition for US cryptocurrency investors due to the upcoming US election are factors to watch. It is important to remember BTC’s original purpose of combating central bank currency over-issuance in the face of the expanding US dollar and bond system.
EMC BTC Cycle Indicator:
The EMC BTC Cycle indicator shows that the bull market acceleration period has risen from a low of 0.37 to 0.63 due to the recovery of market price indicators and long-short hand indicators.
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