Over the past 24 hours, the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has decreased by $91 billion. Bitcoin, after a 12-hour long battle around $60,000, began a “waterfall” drop at 9:00 AM this morning, briefly dipping below $58,000 and revisiting lows seen a week ago, with a 5.72% decline over 24 hours. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin has rebounded above $59,100.
In addition to Bitcoin, major altcoins have also started to decline across the board. The cryptocurrency market witnessed liquidations totaling nearly $100 million in the past hour, half of which occurred in the last 12 hours. Mainstream tokens in the Ethereum ecosystem such as LDO, ETHFI, and ENS have experienced declines ranging from 8% to 20.46% over the past 24 hours. Similarly, the Solana ecosystem saw declines of around 15% in tokens like JTO, WIF, and TNSR.
Although the market has bottomed out, reasons for continued declines persist. Despite the crypto community accepting the current phase as a “lengthy pullback bottom,” Bitcoin’s volatility has approached new lows since February, yet signals of ongoing decline remain.
David Lawant, Research Director at FalconX, noted in a report: “Current dynamics in the cryptocurrency market feature low volatility and sluggish trading volume. As prices move towards the edges of their ranges, order books become unbalanced.”
Bitcoin spot ETFs serve as crucial indicators of market direction. According to Farside Investors data, Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows for two consecutive days, totaling $34.2 million over this period.
Furthermore, the absence of fresh capital inflows is a significant factor preventing the market from meeting expectations. Stablecoin total market capitalization has steadily grown since mid-last year, corresponding with an upward trajectory in the broader market, signaling a bear-to-bull transition. However, since early May, the cryptocurrency market has seen no new capital inflows, with stablecoin market capitalization fluctuating around $160 billion for over two months. Without sufficient internal liquidity, there is no buying pressure to drive market gains.
With sentiment persistently low, is it time to buy? Bitcoin touched $58,000 a week ago and has returned to this level again today. The market is divided on whether this signifies a clearing of corrections or the end of the bull market. From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin’s RSI on the 4-hour and daily charts has shown signs of divergence at the bottom, suggesting that the price may have already dropped excessively in the short term, with today’s sell-off not matching that of June 24th, potentially indicating a rebound.
Market sentiment appears overly pessimistic—is it a buying opportunity? According to crypto KOL Ignas, Bitcoin prices are being artificially suppressed through deceptive sell orders by whales, prompting retail investors and fund managers to sell for risk aversion.
CryptoQuant recently reported that Bitcoin miners’ revenues have been “extremely low” since the halving, with transaction fee income accounting for only 3.2% of daily total revenues, the lowest share in three months. With dwindling incentives, miners are starting to capitulate, shutting down underperforming equipment and selling Bitcoin to hedge risks, historically a signal of Bitcoin nearing a bottom.
However, various signals also suggest that Bitcoin could continue to decline. Markus Thielen of 10x Research estimates that the average entry price for Bitcoin ETF buyers is between $60,000 and $61,000. Therefore, yesterday’s drop below $60,000 could trigger an ETF liquidation wave, further depressing Bitcoin prices.
For instance, Thielen believes that Bitcoin’s weekly and monthly chart reversal indicators suggest a broader pullback, potentially pushing prices further down to $55,000. Andrew Kang, co-founder of crypto venture firm Mechanism Capital, sees an even lower bottom for Bitcoin, suggesting an extreme correction to the $40,000 range.
Confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term price remains in the market. Standard Chartered Bank forecasts that Bitcoin may hit a new historical high in August and reach $100,000 during the U.S. presidential election in November. Analysts at the bank also maintain price targets of $150,000 by year-end and $200,000 by 2025. Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat, similarly insists on his prediction of Bitcoin reaching $150,000.
“Making money is too difficult,” and “I’m sorry, family,” are common discussions in the community this month. For retail investors, this bull market has proven exceedingly challenging.