A Polymarket user placed a nearly $200,000 bet on Nebraska Senator Pete Ricketts’ re-election an hour before a New York Times/Siena poll showed him leading, according to a New York Times report cited by Cointelegraph on Nov. 7, 2026.
Vanderbilt University researchers identified the Oct. 31 wager. The Times report, published that Friday, said the user won more than $77,000, but it remained unclear whether they had access to inside information. The report described suspicious betting shortly before the release of two recent Times/Siena political polls and said the user also placed similar large bets on other markets, including Kalshi.
“There’s a series of circumstances here that it’s hard to write it off as a random occurrence,” said Brett Goldstein of the Vanderbilt Institute of National Security. He said the activity “requires further investigation.”
Polymarket said it had spotted the trades and was investigating. Kalshi declined to comment. The report did not establish that the trader had used nonpublic information.
Background: a separate alleged misuse of nonpublic information
Cointelegraph also referenced its April reporting on a US Army soldier charged after allegedly making more than $400,000 through prediction-market bets using nonpublic information about a US operation involving then-Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
According to allegations in a Department of Justice statement, Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke participated in planning and executing Operation Absolute Resolve, which led to Maduro’s capture at a residence in Caracas, Venezuela, in January. The DOJ alleged that Van Dyke used that information to buy “yes” shares in Polymarket contracts, including “Maduro out by January 31” and “Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31.”
That separate case does not establish wrongdoing in the election-poll trades, for which access to inside information remained unconfirmed.
Original publication: Nov. 7, 2026, at 17:10:35 UTC+08:00.
Source: Cointelegraph’s original article.